Asia week ahead: PMIs and CPI data take centre stage

ING Global Economics Team ING Economic and Financial Analysis

PMIs and CPI data will be in focus across the region over the coming week, alongside a rate decision in India and Japan’s labour cash earnings.

China: PMI in focus

PMI data will be in focus in the week ahead. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will publish the official manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI on Saturday morning. We are currently expecting a slight uptick in the manufacturing PMI to 50.3 from 50.1, which would send another positive signal for recent growth stabilisation. The Caixin manufacturing PMI is set for release on Monday.

Korea: CPI, PMI and exports data

We expect export growth for Korea to rise 4.4% year-on-year in November compared to the previous month’s 4.6%. Strong chip and vessel exports will be the main driver of the growth while car, petroleum, and home appliances decline. As import growth is likely to stay flat on the back of falling global commodity prices, the trade surplus is expected to widen modestly. The manufacturing PMI release will be closely watched – this has been below 50 for two months and it is expected to decline further in November.

Meanwhile, consumer price inflation is expected to rebound to 1.9% YoY in November from 1.3% in October, mostly related to the fuel subsidy programme and its base effects. We expect inflation to stay below 2% throughout 2025.

India: Rate decision

We expect the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to leave the Repo rate unchanged at 6.5% given the recent surge in CPI inflation to the RBI’s tolerance limit of 6%. Lower food inflation pressures should help CPI inflation ease in the first quarter of 2025, creating room for rate cuts.

Indonesia: CPI

November's CPI reading is expected to ease further to 1.5% YoY, near the lower end of Bank Indonesia's target range of 1.5%-3.5%, from 1.7% previously. However, the bar for BI to ease rates in December remains high given the recent weakness in the local currency.

Japan: Labour cash earnings

Real cash earning growth may return back to positive terriority with a 0.1% YoY gain in October. With healthy labour cash earnings, we expect the Bank of Japan to deliver a rate hike in December.

Taiwan: PMI and CPI inflation

Taiwan’s PMI data is set for release on Monday morning, where markets will watch to see if manufacturing can stay in expansion for the eighth consecutive month after last month’s PMI fell to 50.2. Additionally, Taiwan’s November CPI inflation is set for release on the coming Thursday, where we are looking for inflation to stay more or less stable at around 1.7% YoY.

Key events in Asia next week

Source: Refinitiv, ING

Read the original analysis: Asia week ahead: PMIs and CPI data take centre stage

Author

ING Global Economics Team

ING Economic and Financial Analysis

From Trump to trade, FX to Brexit, ING’s global economists have it covered. Go to ING.com/THINK to stay a step ahead.

EUR/USD holds firm near 1.1850 amid USD weakness

EUR/USD remains strongly bid around 1.1850 in European trading on Monday. The USD/JPY slide-led broad US Dollar weakness helps the pair build on Friday's recovery ahead of the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence data for February.

GBP/USD holds medium-term bullish bias above 1.3600

The GBP/USD pair trades on a softer note around 1.3605 during the early European session on Monday. Growing expectation of the Bank of England’s interest-rate cut weighs on the Pound Sterling against the Greenback.

Gold remains supported by China's buying and USD weakness as traders eye US data

Gold struggles to capitalize on its intraday move up and remains below the $5,100 mark heading into the European session amid mixed cues. Data released over the weekend showed that the People's Bank of China extended its buying spree for a 15th month in January. Moreover, dovish US Fed expectations and concerns about the central bank's independence drag the US Dollar lower for the second straight day, providing an additional boost to the non-yielding yellow metal.

Cardano steadies as whale selling caps recovery

Cardano (ADA) steadies at $0.27 at the time of writing on Monday after slipping more than 5% in the previous week. On-chain data indicate a bearish trend, with certain whales offloading ADA. However, the technical outlook suggests bearish momentum is weakening, raising the possibility of a short-term relief rebound if buying interest picks up.

Japanese PM Takaichi nabs unprecedented victory – US data eyed this week

I do not think I would be exaggerating to say that Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s snap general election gamble paid off over the weekend – and then some. This secured the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) an unprecedented mandate just three months into her tenure.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple consolidate after massive sell-off

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple prices consolidated on Monday after correcting by nearly 9%, 8%, and 10% in the previous week, respectively. BTC is hovering around $70,000, while ETH and XRP are facing rejection at key levels. Traders should be cautious: despite recent stabilization, upside recovery for these top three cryptocurrencies is capped as the broader trend remains bearish.