Asia open: Wall Street’s optimism spills east as Asia eyes trade thaw and tech tailwinds

Asian markets are revving up, ready to catch the tailwind from Wall Street’s melt-up. Futures are flashing green across Japan and Hong Kong after the S&P 500 ripped 2% higher in a squeeze that felt equal parts earnings fuel and macro repricing. Alphabet’s earnings blew the doors off, the Fed is tilting dovish just enough to keep rate cut hopes alive, and traders are sniffing early signs of a U.S.-China trade thaw. Not a deal, not détente—just enough dialogue to take the decoupling premium down a notch.

But let’s not get carried away. This isn't about a full tariff unwind or some kumbaya moment between DC and Beijing. The rally's built on nuance—signals, not substance. Markets are latching onto tone shifts, not treaty drafts. Still, in a tape this reactive, soft pivots are all you need to keep risk humming.

Japan is the pilot project here. Washington is drawing up a trade playbook with Tokyo as the blueprint—testing bilateral terms that can be mirrored with India, South Korea, and other friend-shoring allies—and shifting trade flows away from China’s industrial sprawl without triggering a supply chain crisis, to achieve a more equitable footing for everyone.

That’s where the rubber hits the road: EVs, clean energy tech, and chips. These sectors aren’t just policy targets—they’re battlefields. The U.S. won’t let China export its way out of deflation at the West’s expense. This is industrial policy dressed in geopolitical armour, and no one wants a rerun of the solar glut or another EV supercycle landing on shore.

Meanwhile, the Fed is providing just enough cover to let markets breathe. Waller’s out there dangling rate cuts if tariffs start biting jobs, and Cleveland’s Hammack is already eyeing June as a potential pivot point. Yields eased, gold’s eyeing a gridn higher, and currency volatility is drifting lower in an orderly fashion.

Add Alphabet’s 5% post-close surge, and you’ve got Nasdaq juice seeping into Asia. Aussie and Kiwi desks are closed for the ANZAC holiday, but Japan and Hong Kong look ready to pop.

Net-net? Macro’s got a soft tailwind, trade tensions are simmering instead of boiling, and earnings are delivering where it counts. But this isn’t a risk-on free-for-all—it’s a tactical window. Keep eyes glued to the usual suspect, none other than President Trump.