Asia open: Relief rally or just a reprieve?

Stocks and futures popped higher out of the gate in Asia as Trump hit pause—sort of—on the tech tariff barrage. Yeah, Lutnick’s already trying to walk it back with the “temporary” label slapped on, but the tape doesn’t care for now. We’re squarely in relief mode.

Asian bourses opened firm, with US equity futures tagging along. Treasuries held steady, the dollar backed off against the majors, and that combo right there? Classic risk-on tells, especially in Asia, where a softer dollar and calm bond markets typically bring out the buyers.

The exemption sweep covering smartphones, laptops, and chips gives Big Tech a 90-day breather. Markets, whipsawed by tariff roulette and headline whiplash, needed it. But let’s be clear—this isn’t a détente. Trump’s already hinted at fresh semiconductor-focused tariffs next month. So this is a ceasefire, not a peace treaty.

Still, in a market this twitchy, we don’t trade what should happen—we trade what is happening. And right now, sentiment’s clawing its way back. But it’s a tricky tape—policy on the fly, constant reversals, and a market still traumatized by last week’s plumbing failures. You sit idle here, and you’re watching your PnL rot. You’ve got to be in, but hedged. Fast, but not reckless.

Let’s not forget what really broke the tape last week: the bond market plumbing. Basis swap chaos, whispers of buyer strikes, stealthy UST selling from China—all mixed into a cocktail that shook every asset class. Tariffs were just the garnish.

Enter Fed’s Collins with the verbal wrench, reminding everyone the Fed can and will step in to keep the pipes from bursting. That’s your anchor. Combine that with the tech reprieve, and we’ve got enough narrative juice to keep a bid under risk—at least until the next White House headline detonation.

So are we all-in risk here? Not quite. But the bark is now louder than the bite. Traders are sniffing out that escalation risk is entering diminishing returns territory. Both DC and Beijing know it—markets sure as hell do.

And let’s talk China for a second. Don’t read the tape like it’s free-flowing price discovery—it’s state-directed theater. The National Team doesn’t react; they script. SOEs move like chess pieces, not market participants. So if you're trading that tape like it’s the Nasdaq, good luck. You're playing poker at a rigged roulette table.

Sentiment’s ticking higher, but don’t chase. Be tactical, be fast, and know your exits. This isn’t the rally wagon—yet. But it’s not panic mode either. For now, we trade the reprieve.