Asia open: A show of resilience amid the looming shadow of president-elect Trump?

US markets

After a rollercoaster Thursday, the S&P 500 finally found its footing and ended on a high note, spurred by a cocktail of robust economic signals and stellar corporate earnings. The spotlight shone brightly on profit margins, setting the tone for a parade of companies announcing unexpectedly lush reports. This positive corporate news, backed by solid economic data, helped power gains in cyclical sectors known to thrive in robust economic conditions.

Amidst this financial fervour, a surprising dip in unemployment claims added another layer of economic optimism. The latest figures saw a drop of 6,000 in new filings, signalling a stronger job market in November—a sharp recovery from October’s hurricane-hit and strike-laden slowdown.

The day wasn't just about stock market recoveries; Bitcoin also took a dramatic leap over the $99,000 mark while crude oil prices marched upward, adding to the economic enthusiasm.

As the curtains rise on Friday, all eyes will be on the global PMI data, a key economic indicator that could further sway market direction. Moreover, the financial community is on edge, awaiting insights from upcoming speeches by Federal Reserve officials that could signal the next moves in monetary policy.

Asia open

Risk assets in Asia are gearing up for a buoyant start this Friday, fueled by a resilient performance on Wall Street, where U.S. stocks closed a turbulent session on a positive note. All eyes in the region now shift towards Japan as traders await the latest inflation figures, a pivotal moment for JPY traders. This data is keenly anticipated, as it holds significant implications for the BoJ and market strategies that could considerably sway local currency dynamics.

Amidst the bustling fervour of financial forecasts and market maneuvers, the looming shadow of President-elect Donald Trump’s administration casts a long, speculative silhouette over the global stage. The corridors of power buzz with anticipation and uncertainty as the world eagerly awaits his pick for Treasury Secretary—a decision that remains shrouded in mystery and could pivot global financial markets on a dime. Adding to the drama, geopolitical tensions simmer across continents, weaving a complex tapestry that keeps investors on edge and global markets in a state of alert.

Forex markets

Across the Atlantic, the currency markets are wrestling with their own drama, particularly with the Euro under pressure. The overnight trading sessions saw the Euro taking hits, partly in anticipation of weaker European economic PMI data. However, the absolute juggernaut shaking the markets is Donald Trump’s re-election and his appointment of Howard Lutnick as Commerce Secretary. Known for his staunch advocacy of Trump's hardline tariff and tax reform policies, Lutnick’s appointment signals a potential escalation in U.S.-EU trade tensions. This looming threat poses a significant challenge for the Euro as European markets brace for the l economic stagnation, setting a stark contrast to the inflation narrative in the U.S. It's a fact of life that may lead the ECB to cut jumbo 50 bp) possibly as soon as December in a pre-emptive US tariff move.

This geopolitical tempest is poised to test the resilience of the Euro as it navigates the stormy waters of international trade politics, which are overshadowed by Trump's aggressive tariff maneuverings.

Back here in the east, in a striking declaration, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda articulated a sharp focus on the nuanced interplay between foreign exchange rates and the bank's economic forecasting. His remarks on Thursday have sparked a flicker of anticipation across FX markets, hinting at potential adjustments in monetary policy as soon as December. However, whispers within the financial community suggest January might be the more likely juncture for action.

Over the last 48 hours, the prevailing sentiment around the USD/JPY pair has been cautious stability, buoyed by expectations of policy shifts from the Bank of Japan and the backdrop of proposed governmental stimulus measures. In the New York trading session, the pair has been seen hovering around 154.50, with the US dollar showing resilience even after briefly dipping to the 154.00 mark and facing a rebound. This steadiness clearly reflects a market vigilantly tracking both the Bank of Japan and forward Fed policies. Yet, despite the poised JPY setup, the market has shied away from dramatic movements, with no significant fireworks igniting just yet.

I can't shake the feeling that once the December Fed meeting is behind us, the dollar is primed to rally, breaking away from its usual seasonal downtrend. Bond traders are already bracing for a bearish backdrop as we inch closer to the Trump inauguration—a scenario that historically signals a bullish reversal for the dollar. This anticipation could set the stage for another showdown between the USDJPY and the Ministry of Finance (MOF), potentially driving significant movements in the forex markets.

Commodity markets

The drama of the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to stoke the fires under commodity markets, sending oil and gold on an upward trajectory. Overnight, the tension escalated further when Ukraine reported a Russian ballistic missile strike on the city of Dnipro. Although the missile wasn't of the intercontinental (aka Nuke) variety, its deployment is a chilling reminder of the stakes at play.

While not crossing into the realm of global armageddon, Russia's military posturing is unmistakably a show of force, possibly choreographed for the global audience and the 'Trump showdown.' The actions are a stark demonstration, influencing the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index to spike. Investors rushed to the traditional safe havens of gold and oil( yes, long oil in this situation is a “ safe-haven,” or at least a hedge), mirroring each other's ascent in a tight dance of correlation.

Amidst this backdrop of sabre-rattling, the spectre of unpredictability looms large. The fear is not just of an intentional escalation but of a catastrophic blunder—perhaps a rogue strike on Russia’s critical oil infrastructure or a missile tragically straying into a densely populated area, which could unleash chaos on an unimaginable scale.

Drawing a parallel with other global hotspots, consider the delicate situation involving Israel's military strategies, influenced by U.S. directives focusing on Iran. Any aggressive move against Russian oil assets could inflame the geopolitical tinderbox and plunge global markets into turmoil, especially precarious as the Northern Hemisphere edges into the winter's high-demand energy season.

It's reasonable to speculate that the same cautious approach the U.S. advised Israel to adopt regarding Iranian oil infrastructure—essentially marking it off-limits for attacks—might also apply to Ukraine's stance towards Russian oil facilities.

This high-stakes geopolitical chess game underscores the interconnectedness of military actions and global economic stability, where a single misstep could escalate into a crisis reverberating through markets and capitals worldwide.

Crypto markets

The Trump-Musk alliance is lighting up the crypto scene like a blockchain-powered fireworks display, promising an era of crypto nirvana enthusiasts could only HODL their breath for. Trump has flipped from a crypto skeptic to a visionary, setting his sights on establishing the U.S. as the undisputed crypto kingdom of the world. Alongside him, Elon Musk, the ultimate "crypto bro," continues to stir the pot with his Bitcoin plays at Tesla and meme-worthy Dogecoin shenanigans, further cementing his status as a legend in the crypto cosmos.

The buzz isn't just about these titans backing digital currencies; it's also fueled by the speculative and heady notion of Bitcoin joining the ranks of U.S. reserves—a dream scenario for the crypto faithful. While this idea remains more pipe dream than reality, it's a narrative that lets Bitcoin maximalists shoot for the stars, challenging the hegemony of the almighty dollar and envisioning a future where fiat currencies bow down to digital supremacy.

Bitcoin is now dancing to its own tune, breaking free from the traditional market correlations that once saw it move in lockstep with the Nasdaq. This newfound independence is a bullish signal of its maturation into a full-fledged asset class, strutting its stuff on the financial stage.

For those deep in the crypto game, Bitcoin isn't just an asset; it's an antidote to the "fiat fiasco," a beacon of hope in the fight against currency debasement. It's about stacking sats and watching fiat currencies melt like cheap ice cream. Bitcoin's battle cry, "To the moon!" ( or Mars), encapsulates the belief that it's not just a currency or investment but a revolutionary force reshaping the financial landscape. Whether you're a whale or a newbie, Bitcoin is more than a mere digital coin—it's a movement, a call to arms for decentralization warriors everywhere. HODL on, because Bitcoin is not just changing the game; it's changing the world.

A three-paragraph US stock market outlook

Of course, when we explore the intricate dance between stock valuations and bond yields, it’s like stepping into a classic tale of financial ebb and flow. Timeless wisdom suggests that valuations often clash with rising bond yields, presenting a theatrical showdown in the investment world. As bond yields ascend under the Trump presidency, echoing the drumbeats of potential rate hikes or at least no rate cuts, they beckon with their promise of higher returns, which can cast a shadow over the sparkling allure of stocks, especially when stock valuations are sitting at heady heights.

And that's just the tip of the iceberg. The looming tech war threatens to tighten supply chain constraints well into next year, significantly impacting market tech and AI  leaders. This could escalate typical trade war tensions, making them seem as tame as a game of Axis and Allies by comparison. This complex situation could reshape economic strategies and market dynamics dramatically.

Here's the twist in the narrative—I'm not planting my flag in the bullish or bearish camp over the next six months to one year. The market's rhythm is too unpredictable, too filled with sudden crescendos and diminuendos to choose a definitive side. However, cast your gaze further on the horizon, to the sprawling vista of a decade, and you’ll find my outlook undeniably bullish. It reflects a steadfast belief in the enduring vibrancy and growth of markets. It is a testament to long-term optimism that sees beyond the temporary fluctuations and focuses on broader, more dynamic growth over time. This perspective isn’t just about observing the currents but sailing with a keen eye on distant shores, always ready to harness the winds of change.