And the train, it won't slow down

• A net zero gain or loss for the dollar after yesterday & last night

• U.S. Debt has reached a point where it will begin to grow quickly!

Good Day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! My beloved Cardinals couldn't find their bats again last night and got shut out again! UGH! 13 times this year! That's 13 times too many in my book! And what made it worse was that it was against the Reds... I'll always hold it against the Reds, for ending Jason LaRue's career... Cardinals fans will know what I'm talking about here... Well, nothing The announcer said last night the Big Boy trains would be in St. Louis today... And that got me thinking about a run-away train... I'll get to what I mean in just a minute... Humble Pie greets me this morning with their 70's song: I Don't Need No Doctor

Quick trivia.. Who was the guitar player and backup singer for Humble Pie? The answer will be somewhere in the letter today, see if you can find it... and no Googling it! 

Well, the dollar drifting at sea found an island where there were some buyers that hadn't heard that the Fed Heads were going to debase the dollar next week...  The BBDXY gained 2 index points on the day, and finished the day at 1,236... This small move in the dollar didn't bring about a euro that was falling... The euro held Steady Eddie throughout the day yesterday, and the rest of the currencies all filed in behind the Big Dog. The Petrol Currencies, that include the ruble, krone, sterling, real, loon, and pesos, are all getting treated like a red-headed stepchild these days, as the price of Oil seems to slip a buck a day, which it did again yesterday and ended the day with a $66 handle... The Mexican peso trades with a 20 handle again, after being the currency of the year previously, it has fallen on difficult times in recent times... And the ruble, which just last week trade with an 88, is back to a 90 handle, and so on for the Petrol Currencies... 

Well, I think the bond boys read that article that I highlighted the other day regarding how the bond boys had grown apprehensive and thought that the Fed Heads had waited too long to cut rates..... Why did I just say that? Because the 10-year got bought by the bushelful yesterday, and ended the day trading with a 3.66%, that is after starting the day with a 3.74%... Now, this all makes sense to me that the bond boys are back to moving yields downward, with sells to buyers... 

In the overnight markets last night... Well, the next island that the drifting dollar stopped at had heard the news that the dollar was about to be debased, and so they sold dollars... Not a lot of selling, but some nonetheless... The BBDXY is down 2 index points to start the day today, the currencies though all look at lot like me lately,,, tired and broken down..  Gold is down $12 to start the day today, while Silver is up 32-cents... Tell me how that makes sense, and I'll owe you a cup of coffee... I really like the coffee that is Jamaican rum infused...  

The price of Oil actually gained a buck overnight and trades this morning with a $67 handle... Maybe, just maybe, because you never know (Joaquin Andujar) the selling has abated? I doubt it, probably just a correction of sorts... And the 10-year's yield trades this morning with a 3.67% yield...  So, in reality no change from yesterday's close... 

The folks over at Morgan Stanley put out a report that called for the euro to lose 7% VS the dollar, because they think that the European Central Bank will come out with some BIG rate cuts... I just have one question for these Ivy leaguers... So, does that still hold true if the FOMC has BIG rate cuts too?  I shake my head in disbelief that these guys get through school... I'm just saying...

Well... Did you watch the Great Debate? I didn't... After watching my beloved Cardinals get shut out, I wished I had watched just about anything else! OK... Regarding the runaway train I mentioned above... I've told you all the forecasts by the CBO (Congressional Budget Office) regarding out National Debt... There's this thing that says when debt reaches a point where it can't be paid back, and the country has to borrow to pay the debt service (interest on the bond) then the debt will begin to multiply quickly... Can you say $20 Trillion in the next 10 years?  That's what the CBO said, but I'm of the opinion that it will be larger than that... Our National Debt is the runaway train, folks, and there's no stopping it now...  Eventually, we as a country, will be looking at having to cut spending, somehow, like social security, and Medicaid... So, if you're close to the retirement age, you had better sign up for Soc. Sec. Before it's gone with the wind... I'm just saying... 

I'm also amazed at how the economy seems to be getting along, albeit weakening, with all the debt that is weighing it down... All the attention of the bean counters in Gov't is the debt, how to finance it, how to pay the interest, etc. Maybe we don't need them? We don't need them to tell us that the Debt is going to multiply quicker from here on out... Anyone taking math classes in school knows about how balances can multiply quickly... It's called Combination Calculator... It's a real doozy of calculation so, I wouldn't try this at home! HA! 

But one day, the economy won't continue to go along... And that's when the Fed Heads will panic, again, and cut rates down to zero again... And probably start buying bonds again... The Fed Heads are all looking at this all wrong... What else is knew? They shouldn't be cutting rates at this point, they should be forcing Congress to cut some deficit spending or else they won't play along with any longer and cut rates, etc.  

I know, I know the rate cuts should shoot Gold's price to the moon, but what if it doesn't? This just proves that you can't have your cake and eat it too! I wonder what Peter Frampton would say about this? Do you feel like we do? That the Fed Heads will be making a HUGE mistake by cutting rates?  

The FWIW article this morning has something on the rate cuts... So be sure to stay tuned to the same Bat Channel, same Time....

The U.S. Data Cupboard today, has the STUPID CPI August print... It is widely expected that The STUPID CPI grew at .2% in August, and the annual STUPI CPI would drop to 2.6% (from 2.9%)... I don't see how that will happen, given the money supply remaining to be fed through a huge pipeline, but then I'm not a propeller head in the Gov't making things up as i go along....  

To recap... The drifting at sea dollar stopped at an island that wasn't aware that the Fed Heads were set to debase the dollar next week, and they bought dollars... Not a Huge movement in the BBDXY, just 2 index points, but buying nontheless... Then in the overnight markets those 2 index points were sold! Chuck talks about how the Petrol Currencies are being treated like a red headed step Child, and how the price of Oil seems to lose a buck a day.... Chuck goes into something else that would take too long to explain, so you better go back and read it if you skimmed over it...

Here's your snippet: "The Federal Open Market Committee has three scheduled meetings remaining in 2024 and markets expect interest rates to be cut at all of them. Statements from FOMC policymakers have generally become more dovish.

This is in part a response to economic conditions. Inflation has eased substantially and the labor market is weakening somewhat, albeit from a period of very low unemployment.

Economic theory suggests both factors typically call for less restrictive monetary policy when compared to current levels.

FOMC Policymakers Continue To Signal Cuts Are Coming

There are 12 voting members of the FOMC. Not all members make frequent public statements, but those who do have expressed a similar theme of looking to ease restrictive monetary policy because inflation is expected to return to target levels.

Of course, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell exerts significant influence on monetary policy. In an August 23 speech, he said that: “the time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

FOMC voting member and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic recently released a statement that was also more dovish than many of his recent comments. He wrote on September 4 that, “we must not maintain a restrictive policy stance for too long. I believe we cannot wait until inflation has actually fallen all the way to 2 percent to begin removing restriction because that would risk labor market disruptions that could inflict unnecessary pain and suffering.”

As such, FOMC policymakers appear to be sending a clear and relatively unified message that interest rates can be expected to move lower from current levels.

How Much Easing Is Needed?

Assuming the FOMC does ease monetary policy over the coming months as broadly expected, the question is how much. The FOMC will provide information on this in an update to the Summary of Economic Projections. This will include expectations for the federal funds rate at the end of 2024. An update here will come with the FOMC’s decision on September 18.

Fixed income markets as assessed by the CME’s FedWatch Tool are currently looking a federal funds rate reduction of 0.75% to 1.5% by December 2024. Short-term rates are expected to end the year at a little more than 4%. Should this forecast hold, rates would be cut at each of the FOMC’s remaining meetings in September, November and December. There is the possibility of larger 0.5% interest rate reductions in at least one of those meetings, and possibly two in the most dovish case.

The Remaining 2024 FOMC Meeting Schedule

The FOMC will announce interest rate decisions at its three remaining 2024 meetings on September 18, November 7 and December 18. The decisions will be announced at 2 p.m. ET and followed 30 minutes later by a press conference with Powell. The September and December meetings will also include an update to the Summary of Economic Projections. In addition, the FOMC typically release meeting minutes three weeks after each event. The FOMC also can adjust interest rates whenever it choses. It has historically adjusted interest rates outside of its typical meeting schedule during times of economic stress."

Chuck again... You all know how I feel about rate cuts... They are basically debasing the currency... I've always contended that a currency was the stock of a country... And therefore, one of the main tools investors use to value a stock is the yield it pays... Now just move that to the currency's yield, and you'll see what I'm getting at... But go ahead and lower interest rates, you dolts, and then see what happens.... Oh sure, stocks will rally even higher, home prices will rise ever higher, and inflation will come back...  Mark my words on that one, folks... 

Market prices 9/11/2024: American Style: A$.6643, kiwi .6121,

C$ .7353, euro 1.1009, sterling 1.3053, Swiss $1.1756, European Style: rand 17.9772, krone 10.8287, SEK 10.4143, forint 360.17, zloty 3.8955, koruna 22.7825, RUB 91.21, yen 142.47, sing 1.3050, HKD 7.7987, INR 83.97, China 7.1178, peso 19.83, BRL 5.6378, BBDXY 1,234.76, Dollar Index 101.74, Oil $67.76, 10-year 3.68%, Silver $28.55, Platinum $936.00, Palladium $973.00, Copper $4.14, and Gold... $2.505.00.

That's it for today... Ahh, our second day of infamy... 9/11... That was really a sad time for our country, it was also the beginning of the end of our Empire... I remember that morning like it happened yesterday... I had a little 9-inch B&W TV behind my desk, and the whole office surrounded it to get a glimpse of the goings on... Gold leapt in price by 6% that day... And back then it was only $287 an ounce! A 6% rise today, would be a moon shot! I'm still not strong enough to walk very far... or climb too many steps... This blood loss thing is taking way too long to recover... RIP James Earl Jones.... The Voice!  OK... Time to hit send... George Harrison takes us to the finish line today with his song: While My Guitar Gently Sleeps... Another quick trivia question for you, who played the lead guitar parts on that song?  Well, you don't have to search for it, as it was Eric Clapton... I hope you have a Wonderful Wednesday today, and please Be Good To Yourself!