Mario Blascak, PhD
Independent Analyst
What you need to know before markets open
- The world’s most important central bankers gather in Sintra, Portugal for the annual symposium organized by the ECB.
- China said it will impose duties on the US oil imports worth almost $1 billion per month.
- OPEC discusses output hike of up to 600,000 barrels a day with the decision set to be made on June 22.
- The UK Prime Minister Theresa May is under pressure to disclose how to boost the financing for National Health Service.
- German Chancellor Angela Merkel faces a crisis over migration policy that enters a critical phase this week.
- With little-to-no macro news due on Monday, the sentiment and the central bankers' speeches are set to take over.
Monday's upcoming market moving events
- ECB President Mario Draghi delivers the opening remarks by the at the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal at 19:00 GMT.
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams is expected to deliver closing remarks on at a conference on banking culture, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at 21:00 GMT.
Major market themes
- Major European currencies like EUR and GBP are trading little changed against the US Dollar as political uncertainties pushed greenback higher earlier on Monday.
- Central bankers’ speeches are due later on Monday with both ECB’s Draghi and New York Fed’s Williams speeches being of rather ceremonial nature.
- The central bankers' symposium organized by ECB in Sintra, Portugal begins.
Earlier in Asia/Europe
- Rightmove house price index rose 1.1% y/y in May.
- Japan’s trade balance reached a deficit of ¥-296.8 billion in May.
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GBP/USD remains depressed near 1.2520 on stronger Dollar
Poor results from the UK docket kept the British pound on the back foot on Thursday, hovering around the low-1.2500s in a context of generalized weakness in the risk-linked galaxy vs. another outstanding day in the Greenback.
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Geopolitics back on the radar
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Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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