Monica Kingsley
Monicakingsley
S&P 500 gave a little preview of FOMC volatility, with first the upswing to capitalize on for clients, and then a sharp intraday decline I warned clients about too. The same concerns interest rate sensitive plays watchout for buying climax (plain rejection to go up) followed by decline.
Macroeconomically, that was justified by good retail sales figure lifting up 25bp cut odds – subsequently countered by 50bp trial balloons by select public speakers. The uncertainty about 25bp vs. 50bp cut is immense, and the real question being what‘s the prevailing expectation now, and I‘m leaning towards it being 50bp in the end. Reassuring 50bp cut to start with, markets are being convinced.
Quoting Sunday‘s analysis and developing the thoughts much further for clients in the premium sections (plenty of Telegram and Twitter coverage follows):
(…) Will we get the reassuring 25bp cut that I had been a fan of, or is the new favorite of 50bp the reassuring one (no asleep at the wheel) now? Given what I see happening in various sectors and even individual names, I have an answer below for clients.
… the put to call ratio...just so, so complacent…
… positioning for a bullish outcome... is actually so strong that the ratio of stocks trading above various moving averages, is at levels associated with local tops being formed. Caution is warranted as volume is picking up.
All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
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