Ipek Ozkardeskaya
Swissquote Bank Ltd
Either the Federal Reserve (Fed) doves are going seriously ahead of themselves, or there will be a big disappointment when the Fed will announce its policy decision tomorrow. Or... the Fed will align with the market and give investors want they want, to avoid creating further panic. The expectation of a 50bp is now assessed nearly 70% chance. US yields and the dollar are softening, the equities are holding on to their gains, precious metals see demand and US crude jumps above $70pb.
In individual news, Intel jumped more than 6% yesterday on news that it sealed a deal with Amazon’s AWS. According to the news, the companies will co-invest in a custom semiconductor for AI computing. Intel also confirmed that it will well separate its foundry business from the rest, to unlock its external foundry potential by giving its customers a better image of independence of its foundry unit. The news pleased investors, for once. A growing number of companies are exploring the potential of developing their own custom chips, a vision that Intel’s independent foundry services could help bring to life.
This report has been prepared by Swissquote Bank Ltd and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Swissquote Bank Ltd personnel at any given time. Swissquote Bank Ltd is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.
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GBP/USD tests seven-month lows below 1.2500
GBP/USD continues to lose ground for the third consecutive day, trading around 1.2490 during the Asian hours on Friday. The daily chart analysis suggests an ongoing bearish bias as the pair is confined within the descending channel pattern.
EUR/USD struggles near 1.3060 area, just above two-year low ahead of US PCE data
The EUR/USD pair continues with its struggle to attract any meaningful buyers and oscillates in a range around the 1.0360 area during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices remain close to a near-one-month low touched on Thursday and seem poised to register its lowest weekly close since November 2022.
Gold price holds steady around $2,600; upside potential seems limited
Gold price attracts some haven flows amid the looming risk of a US government shutdown. The global flight to safety-led pullback in the US bond yields further benefits the XAU/USD. The Fed’s hawkish stance acts as a tailwind for the USD and should cap any further upside.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple crash, wiping $1.17 billion from the market
Bitcoin price trades below $98,000 on Friday after declining more than 6% this week. Ethereum and Ripple followed BTC’s footsteps, closing below their key support and declining 12% and 4.5%, respectively, this week.
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building
Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.
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