2022 trading begins with many of the same themes carrying over (Omicron, inflation concerns)

Notes/Observations

- 2022 begins with EU markets looking past Omicron virus variant; Many of the same themes carrying over and upcoming data unlikely to bring much new information to the table.

- Turkey CPI hits a 20-year high.

- Major European Manufacturing PMI mixed but staying in expansion territory (Beats: France, Italy; Misses: Germany, Spain; in-line: Euro Zone).

Asia

- China Dec Manufacturing PMI (Govt official) registered its 2nd month of expansion and highest since July (50.3 v 50.0e).

- Singapore Q4 Advance GDP Q/Q: 2.6% v 2.2%e; Y/Y: 5.9% v 5.3%e; Overall 2021 Annual GDP Y/Y: 7.2% v 7.1%e.

- South Korea Dec PMI Manufacturing: 51.9 v 50.9 prior (15th consecutive expansion).

- South Korea ruling party thought to be seeking KRW30T extra budget.

- China property developer Evergrande [3333.HK halted as market awaiting news on a restructuring plan.

- Australia, Japan, New Zealand, Thailand, Vietnam closed for holiday.

Coronavirus

-UK PM Johnson said to review his Plan B measures on Wednesday, Jan 5th. UK Cabinet Min said to have indicated stricter Covid controls were unlikely to be introduced in the coming days based on the latest govt hospitalization & case figures.

Europe

- UK closed for holiday.

- Germany Fin Min Lindner said to pledge tax relief to individuals and companies worth of at least €30B from 2023.

- UK PM Johnson said to also be under increasing pressure to address rising energy prices (including scrapping green taxes), as an 'emergency' and act on cost of living.

- UK govt said to expect France migrant pact to come after France's April elections. UK officials have all but given up on the prospect of reaching a deal with France to tackle the Channel migrant crisis before the French elections in April.

Americas

- President Biden affirmed support of Ukraine sovereignty to President Zelensky, Reiterated that US would respond "decisively" to any Ukraine invasion.

- Canada closed for holiday.

Energy

- OPEC+ JMMC draft said to be expecting impact from Omicron to be mild and short lived (Reminder: OPEC + meeting take place on Tuesday, Jan 4th).

Speakers/Fixed income/FX/Commodities/Erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 +0.33% at 490.32, FTSE closed, DAX +0.76% at 16,006.00, CAC-40 +0.93% at 7,219.44, IBEX-35 +0.69% at 8,773.50, FTSE MIB +0.99% at 27,617.00, SMI +0.46% at 12,934.26, S&P 500 Futures +0.48%].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open generally higher and advanced further into the green as the session progressed; consumer discretionary and real estate are among the sectors leading to the upside; laggard sectors include financials and materials; UK, Ireland closed for holiday; Swiss Life to divest its Italian life and pension portfolio; no major earnings expected during the upcoming US session.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: Ahold Delhaize [AD.NL] +1% (buyback).

- Industrials: Alstom [ALO.FR] +3% (contract), IVECO Group [CNHI.IT] -10% (CNH Industrial's demerger).

- Technology: Ensurge Micropower [ENSU.NO] -4% (trading update).

Speakers

- Germany said contemplating further measures to contain Covid-19 as the omicron variant threatens to become the dominant strain in the country. Chancellor Scholz to meet with state leaders on Friday, Jan 7th to discuss the pandemic.

- Turkey President Erdogan noted that the domestic economy was moving into a different league as its exports hit over $200B in 2021 with Trade deficit under $46.0B.

- Brazil President Bosonaro said to have been admitted to hospital in Sao Paulo.

- Biden’s administration will provide $1.0B in American Rescue Plan funds to expand independent meat and poultry processing capacity.

Currencies/ Fixed income

- USD was slightly softer as markets continued to looked past Omicron virus variant. Risk appetite continued to fid tailwinds into the new year.

- EUR/USD at 1.1350 area; GBP/USD at 1.3515 and USD/JPY at 115.15.

Economic data

- (TR) Turkey Dec PMI Manufacturing: 52.1 v 52.0 prior (7th month of expansion and highest annual pace since Sept 2002).

- (TR) Turkey Dec CPI M/M: 13.6% v 8.5%e; Y/Y: 36.1% v 27.4%e; CPI Core Index Y/Y: % v 24.3%e.

- (TR) Turkey Dec PPI M/M: 19.1% v 11.3%e; Y/Y: 79.9% v 68.1%e.

- (SE) Sweden Dec PMI Manufacturing: 62.1 v 63.1 prior (19th month of expansion).

- (NL) Netherlands Dec Manufacturing PMI: 58.7 v 60.7 prior (17th straight expansion but lowest since Dec 2020).

- (PL) Poland Dec PMI Manufacturing: 56.1 v 54.0e (18th straight expansion).

- (HU) Hungary Dec Manufacturing PMI: 64.8 v 52.3e (9th straight expansion).

- (ES) Spain Dec Manufacturing PMI: 56.2 v 56.4e (11th month of expansion but lowest reading since Feb 2021).

- (CH) Swiss Dec PMI Manufacturing: 62.7 v 61.3e (17th straight expansion).

- (CZ) Czech Republic Dec PMI Manufacturing: 59.1 v 57.1e (16th straight expansion).

- (HK) Hong Kong Nov Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 7.1% v 12.1% prior; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 4.2% v 9.4% prior.

- (IT) Italy Dec Manufacturing PMI: 62.0 v 61.5e (18th month of expansion).

- (NG) Nigeria Dec PMI Manufacturing: 56.4 v 55.0 prior.

- (FR) France Dec Final Manufacturing PMI: 55.6 v 54.9e (confirmed 13th month of expansion).

- (DE) Germany Dec Final Manufacturing PMI: 57.4 v 57.9e (confirmed 18th month of expansion).

- (EU) Euro Zone Dec Final Manufacturing PMI: 58.0 v 58.0e (confirmed 18th month of expansion).

- (GR) Greece Dec Manufacturing PMI: 59.0 v 58.8 prior (10th month of expansion).

- (NO) Norway Dec PMI Manufacturing: 58.0 v 63.9 prior (16th month of expansion).

- (CH) Swiss weekly Total Sight Deposits (CHF): 722.8B v 722.3B prior; Domestic Sight Deposits: 648.9B v 650.0B prior.

- (TR) Turkey Dec Preliminary Trade Balance -$6.6B v -$5.4B prior.

- (DK) Denmark Dec Danish PMI Survey: # v 68.2 prior.

Fixed income issuance

- None seen.

Looking ahead

- (PT) Portugal Dec Preliminary CPI M/M: % v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: % v 2.6% prior.

- (PT) Portugal Dec Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: % v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: % v 2.6% prior.

- (PE) Peru Dec CPI M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.7% prior.

- (IT) Italy Dec Budget Balance: No est v -€9.7B prior.

- (RO) Romania Dec International Reserves: No est v $44.6B prior.

- 05:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 05:30 (DE) Germany to sell €3.0B in 6-month BuBills.

- 05:30 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell €1.0-3.0B in 3-month and 6-month bills.

- 06:25 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey.

- 06:30 (CL) Chile Nov Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: No est v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 12.9%e v 15.0% prior.

- 06:45 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.

- 07:00 (IN) India announces details of upcoming bond sale (held on Fridays).

- 08:00 (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) size announcement on upcoming issuance.

- 08:00 (BR) Brazil Dec PMI Manufacturing: No est v 49.8 prior.

- 08:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 09:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell €4.3-5.5B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month bills.

- 09:00 (IL) Israel Central Bank (BOI) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Base Rate unchanged at 0.10%.

- 09:45 (US) Dec Final Markit Manufacturing PMI: 57.8e v 57.8 prelim.

- 10:00 (US) Nov Construction Spending M/M: 0.7%e v 0.2% prior.

- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Nov Total Remittances: $4.7Be v $4.8B prior.

- 10:00 (CO) Colombia Dec PMI Manufacturing: No est v 54.9 prior.

- 10:30 (MX) Mexico Dec PMI Manufacturing: No est v 49.4 prior.

- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 13-Week and 26-Week Bills.

- 12:00 (IT) Italy Dec New Car Registrations Y/Y: No est v -24.6% prior.

- 13:00 07 (MX) Mexico Dec IMEF Manufacturing Index: No est v 50.4 prior; Non-Manufacturing Index: No est v 50.1 prior.

- 13:00 (BR) Brazil Dec Trade Balance: $4.0Be v -$1.3B prior; Total Exports Y/Y: $24.1Be v $20.3B prior; Total Imports: $19.9Be v $21.6B prior.

- 17:00 (AU) Australia Dec Final PMI Manufacturing: No est v 54.7 prelim.

- 19:00 (AU) Australia Dec CoreLogic House Price Index M/M: No est v 1.1% prior.

- 19:01 (UK) Dec BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y: No est v 0.3% prior.

- 19:30 (AU) Australia Dec Job Advertisements M/M: No est v 7.4% prior.

- 19:30 (JP) Japan Dec Final PMI Manufacturing: No est v 54.2 prelim.

- 19:30 (TH) Thailand Dec PMI Manufacturing: No est v 50.6 prior.

- 19:30 (VN) Vietnam Dec PMI Manufacturing: No est v 52.2 prior.

- 20:45 (CN) China Dec Caixin PMI Manufacturing: 50.0e v 49.9 prior.

- 23:30 (HK) Hong Kong to sell 3-month and 6-month Bills.