AUD/USD: Immediately to the upside comes 0.6700
AUD/USD maintained its erratic performance on Tuesday, reversing part of Monday’s retracement, with the upside always capped by the 0.6700 zone ahead of key US data releases on Wednesday.
EUR/USD needs to clear the 200-day SMA for further gains
EUR/USD managed to extend its multi-session apathetic advance amidst the flattish price action in the Greenback and the majority of the risk-linked assets, all prior to the publication of key releases in the US docket on Wednesday.
Gold under mild selling pressure around $2,320
The precious metal now fades the initial uptick and trades with modest losses near the $2,320 zone per ounce troy in response to the data-driven bounce in the Greenback.
Ripple escrow unlocks one billion XRP on Monday as altcoin ranges above $0.47
Ripple (XRP) escrow unlocked 1 billion tokens on Monday as part of the planned unlock until January 2025. XRP hovers around $0.48 early on Tuesday, adding more than 1% to its value on the day.
From bold to boring
After a rollicking spring rally, gold has settled into a trading range that seems typical for a summertime slowdown. One indicator is now pointing toward a big surprise soon, however.
DEEPER DIVE
Inflation tracker: An improvement in real wages
In the four zones covered (United States, Eurozone, United Kingdom, Japan), wage growth continues to outstrip inflation, supporting household purchasing power gains, but contributing, apart from Japan, to keeping inflation in services at high levels.
ECB research – Profit, wage and productivity triangulation
The ECB's policy setting is faced with critical questions to assess the appropriate level of monetary policy restrictiveness, due to the risk of inflation stickiness. A key relationship in these questions is the triangulation between the wage growth, productivity growth and profits growth.
The Eurozone returns to fiscal prudency
The just-announced start of Excessive Deficit Procedures for five eurozone countries – including France and Italy – and two non-eurozone countries does not only illustrate the return of fiscal discipline but could also once again test political cohesion in the monetary union.
FXS Signals
Technical Confluences Detector
XAU/USD under mild selling pressure around $2,320 Premium
Spot Gold holds to familiar levels on Tuesday, with XAU/USD now retreating from an intraday high of $2,336.72 to trade just above the $2,320 mark. The bright metal turned south as the mood somehow improved in the American session following comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell participated in a monetary policy panel at the 2024 ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra and noted the disinflation trend shows “signs of resuming.” However, he also said that the labor market is still strong, and that policymakers need to see more data like the one they have been seeing recently.
Meanwhile, Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of Chicago, also hit the wires in a different event and said he still thinks a soft landing is possible and that the ark of inflation is clearly down. As a result, stock markets trimmed most of their intraday losses, although Wall Street’s major indexes remain in the red. Nevertheless, decreased demand for safety weighed on Gold.
CRYPTOCURRENCIES
Crypto Today: Bitcoin gets less interest from traders, Ethereum ETF could attract $5 billion inflows
Bitcoin market sees a decline in volatility per on-chain data from Crypto Quant. Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $129 million on July 1; on-chain analysts predict a relief rally in BTC.
Ripple escrow timelocks expired on Monday, one billion XRP unlocked as altcoin ranges above $0.47
Ripple (XRP) escrow unlocked 1 billion tokens on Monday as part of the planned unlock until January 2025. XRP hovers around $0.48 early on Tuesday, adding more than 1% to its value on the day.
Bitcoin holds above $61,000 as Daily Active Addresses is highest since mid-April
US spot Bitcoin ETFs registered slight inflows on Monday. On-chain data shows that BTC's daily active addresses increased, signaling greater blockchain usage. German Government transferred 1,500 BTC, valued at $94.7 million, out of its wallet on Monday.
Chainlink poised for a rally as whales buy the dips
Chainlink’s price bounced from the weekly support level at $13.15 and extends recovery on Tuesday. On-chain data shows that whales have accumulated 2.08 million LINK in the past seven days.
THE STOCK OF THE DAY
Nvidia rebounds as bullish outlook faces sustainability questions
Nvidia staged a decent rebound on Tuesday the 25th of June, rising 6% after a tumble that had seen $430 billion, wiped out in value. Despite the recent pullback, the stock has surged over 156% this year, briefly claiming the title of the world's most valuable company.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
WEEKLY FORECAST
EUR/USD: US employment data and FOMC Minutes under the spotlight Premium
The EUR/USD pair traded lifeless for most of the week around 1.0700, barely reacting on Friday following the release of the United States Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index.
GBP/USD: Pound Sterling looks to UK election for some saving grace Premium
The Pound Sterling (GBP) continued to weaken against the US Dollar (USD) for the fourth week in a row, dragging the GBP/USD pair to a six-week low just above 1.2600.
US Dollar: Attention shifts to Powell and Payrolls Premium
US Dollar Index (DXY) extended its uptrend further. Market participants still see the Fed’s first rate cut in September. NFP and Powell should dictate the price action next week.
Gold: XAU/USD struggles to find direction heading into key week Premium
Gold (XAU/USD) came under bearish pressure and declined below $2,300 on Wednesday after starting the week in a calm manner. The pair, however, managed to recover its losses on Thursday and stabilized above $2,320.
Bitcoin: BTC price correction could end in July, according to seasonal data
Bitcoin (BTC) price appears poised for a decline this week, influenced by slight outflows in US spot ETFs, selling activity among BTC miners, and a combined transfer of 4,690.28 BTC to centralized exchanges by the US and German governments.
Week ahead – French and UK elections on the horizon, US jobs report eyed too
France and UK go to the polls; will elections bring chaos or order? US Payrolls report for June awaited as Fed hawks don’t budge. Eurozone CPI, Fed minutes and ECB forum also on investors’ radar.
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