Summary
The British electorate on Thursday faces the likely and unusual result of a hung Parliament, that is, without a clear majority for either main party, Conservatives or Labor. Coalition governments are common on the continent but rare in England. Except for the current arrangement between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, the only two prior coalition governments in the last 150 years were during the two world wars of the 20th century. Coalitions, at least in formation, tend to give fringe political views greater weight in government. In Britain the likely coalition parties are the Scottish Nationalists, the anti-European UK Independence Party, UKIP, and the current government partner the Liberal Democrats. The Scottish Nationalists are mainstream social democrats and aside from their focus on Scottish nationalism are unlikely to challenge the governing consensus on British membership in the European Union or to advocate joining the euro. The UKIP is a different story. They garnered the fourth most votes in the 2010 elections and won the highest share of any party in the 2014 European Parliament elections. They advocate leaving the European Union and much greater independence from continental concerns. A strong showing, let alone consideration or inclusion in government would send shockwaves throughout the European political and financial establishments. Economic crisis have a way of dispensing with old political arrangement and fomenting new. We may be at the beginning of Europe’s emergence from the sureties of the post war world. Join us on Thursday for a sense of history as it happens. Read here our special interview with Joseph Trevisani about UK Elections.Latest Live Videos
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD slides nearly 1% to test the 0.7000 handle
AUD/USD fell about 1% on Thursday, wrapping the day up near the 0.7010 level after testing below the key 0.7000 handle intraday. The pair has now pulled back sharply from Tuesday's bounce, with two consecutive bearish sessions erasing most of the week's early gains. Price continues to chop within the roughly 150-pip consolidation band between 0.7000 and the year-to-date high close to 0.7150 that has defined the range since early February.
EUR/USD weakens toward 1.1600 as firm US data revives the US Dollar
The EUR/USD edged lower on Thursday, down some 0.21% as market sentiment remains risk averse due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. This and solid US economic data pushed the pair lower towards the 1.1600 figure ahead of Friday’s session.
Gold: further weakness could challenge $5,000
Gold comes under fresh selling pressure on Thursday, slipping back below the $5,100 mark per troy ounce. Persistent strength in the US Dollar (USD) is preventing the yellow metal from building a meaningful recovery, even as markets remain risk-averse amid the deepening conflict in the Middle East.
NYSE parent Intercontinental Exchange partners with OKX, invests at a $25B valuation
OKX announced an investment from Intercontinental Exchange, raising its valuation to $25 billion, alongside a partnership to expand regulated crypto futures and tokenized equity offerings globally.
Two PMIs, two Chinas Premium
China’s economic data are often treated with a degree of caution by global investors. The challenge is not necessarily that the numbers are incorrect, but that they can describe very different parts of a vast and complex economy. Nowhere is that more evident than in China’s PMIs.
Here is what you need to know for Friday, March 6:
The US Dollar (USD) is being supported by crude oil prices, which rose to its highest level since July 2024, amid headlines of potential interruptions to the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on vessels in the region.