GBP/USD Forecast and News
GBP/USD change course, nears 1.3600
GBP/USD trimmed most of its intraday gains and approaches the 1.3600 threshold. Tepid United Kingdom data released earlier in the day adds to Sterling Pound retracement, as the flash estimate of the Q4 Gross Domestic Product posted a modest 0.1% advance in the three months to December.
Latest Pound Sterling News
GBP/USD Technical Overview
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, at 55.94 sits above the 50 mid-line, confirming steady bullish momentum without overbought stress. The nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) rises above the 50-day EMA at 1.3518, keeping the near-term bias positive as price holds above both gauges. The 50-day EMA trends higher, underlining an improving medium-term backdrop.
A topside extension would target resistance at 1.3869, the highest since September 2021, reached on January 27, followed by the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 1.4110. A break above the channel may trigger a fresh rally toward 1.4248, the highest level since April 2018.
On the downside, the immediate support lies at the nine-day EMA at 1.3652. Further weakness could draw a pullback toward support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 1.3570, followed by the 50-day EMA at 1.3518. Further declines would put downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair, testing the support reversal zone around 1.3350.
Fundamental Overview
The GBP/USD pair meets with some supply on Tuesday and erodes a part of the previous day's strong gains to the 1.3700 mark due to UK-specific concerns. Against the backdrop of the Bank of England's (BoE) dovish tilt, UK political turmoil turns out to be a key factor behind the British Pound's (GBP) relative underperformance. This keeps a lid on the currency pair's sharp recovery from the 1.3500 psychological mark, or a two-week low, touched last Friday.
As was widely expected, the BoE decided to leave interest rates unchanged at the end of the February meeting last Thursday, though the 5-4 MPC vote split was a lot more dovish than expected. Adding to this, the central bank signaled a future rate cut if inflation continued to slow. Moreover, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey told reporters during the press conference that inflation is set to reach the target level sooner than expected. Investors were quick to react and are now pricing in a 50 basis points (bps) BoE rate cut this year, which acts as a headwind for the GBP.
Meanwhile, concerns around UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer's leadership intensified after his chief aide, Morgan McSweeney, resigned over the appointment of the US ambassador with close ties to the convicted child sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Adding to this, the leader of the Scottish Labour Party called for Starmer's resignation, adding a layer of uncertainty and weighing on the GBP. Market concerns, however, eased after members of the top leadership team publicly backed the Prime Minister. This, along with a bearish US Dollar (USD), could support the GBP/USD pair.
The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, languishes near a one-week low amid bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower borrowing costs two more times this year. Apart from this, concerns about the US central bank's independence keep the USD bulls on the defensive. Apart from this, the prevalent risk-on environment, bolstered by signs of easing tensions in the Middle East, undermines the buck's safe-haven status. This, in turn, could limit deeper losses for the GBP/USD pair and warrants some caution for bearish traders.
Market participants now look to the release of the US monthly Retail Sales, which, along with Fedspeaks, could provide some impetus later during the North American session. The focus, however, will remain glued to the closely-watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Wednesday and the latest US consumer inflation figures on Friday. These economic releases would offer more cues about the Fed's rate-cut path, which, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics and determining the near-term trajectory for the GBP/USD pair.
SPECIAL WEEKLY GBP/USD FORECAST
Interested in weekly GBP/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Pound-Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
GBP/USD: Pound Sterling tests key support ahead of a big week Premium
The Pound Sterling (GBP) changed course against the US Dollar (USD), with GBP/USD giving up nearly 200 pips in a dramatic correction.
Latest GBP Analysis
Editors' picks
Gold plummets towards $4,900 as market players run into the USD
Gold plunges in the American session on Thursday, down over $150 a troy ounce in little less than an hour. Wall Street's collapse seems to be behind the ongoing US Dollar renewed strength, with the tech and the housing sectors leading the slump.
EUR/USD fades below 1.1900 amid sudden USD demand
EUR/USD has quickly reversed modest intraday gains on Thursday, struggling to retain the 1.1850. The Greenback benefits from both, risk aversion, and market rumours suggesting Russia is analyising returning to the US Dollar system.
GBP/USD change course, nears 1.3600
GBP/USD trimmed most of its intraday gains and approaches the 1.3600 threshold. Tepid United Kingdom data released earlier in the day adds to Sterling Pound retracement, as the flash estimate of the Q4 Gross Domestic Product posted a modest 0.1% advance in the three months to December.
LayerZero Price Forecast: ZRO steadies as markets digest Zero blockchain announcement
LayerZero (ZRO) trades above $2.00 at press time on Thursday, holding steady after a 17% rebound the previous day, which aligned with the public announcement of the Zero blockchain and Cathie Wood joining the advisory board.
A tale of two labour markets: Headline strength masks underlying weakness
Undoubtedly, yesterday’s delayed US January jobs report delivered a strong headline – one that surpassed most estimates. However, optimism quickly faded amid sobering benchmark revisions.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
GBP/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could GBP/USD move this year? Our experts make a GBP/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the pound-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2025 GBP/USD forecast!
GBP/USD 2025 FORECAST
In the GBP/USD 2025 Forecast, FXStreet Senior Analyst Dhwani Mehta indicates divergence between United States Federal Reserve (Fed) and Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy expectations and Donald Trump’s announced protectionist measures may strengthen the US Dollar (USD).
The Fed is signaling a more cautious approach to monetary policy as it navigates strong economic growth and rising inflationary pressures under the new Trump administration.
In contrast, the Bank of England has adopted a more dovish stance amid a fragile UK economy. Market expectations are pricing in up to three quarter-point cuts in 2025.
From a technical point of view, the GBP/USD pair faces further downside after breaking below the 18-month rising wedge support at 1.2682, with the RSI in negative territory. Key support levels are 1.2037, 1.1802, and 1.1500, potentially leading to the 1.1000 mark. Recovery attempts face resistance at 1.2900, with bullish momentum only confirmed above 1.3490.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR GBP/USD
The year will be politically marked by Trump’s return to the White House. A Republican government is seen as positive for financial markets, but Trump’s pledge to cut taxes and impose tariffs on foreign goods and services may introduce uncertainty to both the political and economic landscape.
Influential Institutions & People for the GBP/USD
The Pound VS Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The Bank of England (BoE)
Founded in 1694, the Bank of England (BoE) is the central bank of the United Kingdom (UK). Known as ‘The old lady of Threadneedle Street’, the bank’s mission is "to promote the good of the people of the United Kingdom by maintaining monetary and financial stability".
The Bank of England is responsible for maintaining the UK’s economic stability. It operates monetary policy by adjusting the Bank Rate and, in certain circumstances, supplements this with measures such as quantitative easing.
The Bank of England decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
The official website, on X and YouTube
The Federal Reserve (Fed)
The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States (US) and it has two main targets: to maintain the unemployment rate at its lowest possible levels and to keep inflation around 2%. The Federal Reserve System's structure is composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors and the partially appointed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The FOMC organizes eight scheduled meetings in a year to review economic and financial conditions. It also determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. The FOMC Minutes, which are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve weeks after the latest meeting, are a guide to the future US interest-rate policy.
Fed official website, on X and Facebook
Andrew Bailey
Andrew Bailey has been the Governor of the BoE since March 2020 and his appointment ends on March 2028. Previously, he served in the BoJ as its Chief Cashier, Deputy Governor for Prudential Regulation and Chief Executive of the Financial Conduct Authority.
Bailey on BoE's profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. He was sworn in on May 23, 2022, for a second term as Chairman ending May 15, 2026. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
BOE NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', referring to the most important and widely traded pairs in the world. The pair is also known as “the Cable”, a term originating in the mid-19th century that refers to the first transatlantic telegraph connecting Great Britain and the United States.
As a closely watched and widely traded currency pair, it features the British Pound as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. For that reason, macroeconomic data from both the United States and the United Kingdom significantly impacts its price. One notable event that affected the volatility of the pair was Brexit.
Related pairs
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD is one of the most widely traded currency pairs in the Forex market, where the Euro serves as the base currency and the US Dollar as the counter currency. It accounts for more than half of the total trading volume in the Forex market, making gaps almost inexistent, let alone sudden reversals caused by breakaway gaps.
The EUR/USD is usually quiet during the Asian session, as economic data influencing the pair is usually released during the European or US sessions. Activity increases as European traders begin their day, leading to heightened trading volume. This activity slows around midday during the European lunch break but picks up again when US markets come online.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', a group of the most important currency pairs in the world. The Japanese Yen, known for its low interest rate, is frequently used in carry trades, making it one of the most traded currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY pair, the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen serves as the counter currency.
Trading USD/JPY is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although the latter nickname is more frequently associated with the GBP/JPY pair. USD/JPY usually has a positive correlation with other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/CAD, as all three use the US Dollar as the base currency. The value of the pair is often influenced by interest-rate differentials between the two central banks: the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).