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S&P 500 Price Annual Forecast: 2026 to benefit from decent growth as Trump runs it hot Premium

S&P 500 Price Annual Forecast: 2026 to benefit from decent growth as Trump runs it hot

BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, ran an online survey in early December asking respondents whether attractive returns for risk assets would continue for a fourth straight year in 2026. Respondents overwhelmingly signaled in the affirmative, choosing the most bullish option available by just under 59%. 

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US EQUITY INDICES

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted average of 30 most-traded stocks traded in the United States (US). It is often viewed as representative of “old economy” stocks and is considered a leading indicator for international investment.

While the Dow reflects the big money, the Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is often the preferred gauge of equity markets due to its broad market coverage. The S&P 500 is a market value-weighted index comprising 500 large US stocks, covering about 75% of the US equity market.

The Nasdaq Composite is highly followed in the US as a performance indicator for technology and growth companies. The Nasdaq-100, which includes 100 of the largest non-financial companies in the Nasdaq Composite, accounts for about 80% of the index weighting of the Nasdaq Composite. The Nasdaq Composite is a capitalization-weighted index and it includes both US and non-US companies listed on the Nasdaq stock market. The NASDAQ represents the speculative retail money.

Generally speaking, a rise in the US equity markets tends to increase investors' risk appetite attracting foreign investment to the US equity market and pumping the US Dollar (USD) higher.


EUROPEAN EQUITY INDICES

Germany DAX - Daily

UK FTSE 100 - Daily

The DAX is a stock market index consisting of the 40 major German blue chip companies trading on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. It is a total return index and prices are taken from the Xetra trading venue.

The Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 (FTSE 100), informally known as the “Footsie”, is a market capitalization-weighted index representing the top 100 blue-chip companies on the London Stock Exchange. The index represents over 80% of the total market capitalization in the United Kingdom (UK). Stocks in the FTSE 100 are free-float weighted, ensuring that only the investable opportunity set is included in the index.


JAPANESE EQUITY INDICES

The Nikkei 225, commonly called the Nikkei, is a stock market index for the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE). It is a price-weighted index, operating in Japanese Yen (JPY), that measures the performance of 225 highly capitalized and liquid publicly owned companies in Japan. It has been calculated daily by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) newspaper since 1970.

Nikkei225 - Daily

Relationships between stocks and currencies

Currencies are probably the most difficult asset class to fit into a consistent intermarket model. For instance, when investors purchase stocks from a particular country, they must pay in the local currency, increasing the demand for that currency. Conversely, a strong currency can make bonds and stocks more attractive to foreign investors.

However, the correlation between stocks and currencies is not always clear. There are often response lags between the reactions of Forex and equities markets, leaving investors holding foreign equities exposed to exchange rate fluctuations.

This correlation is also fragile among international equity markets. The so-called global divergences occur when the stock market in one country starts performing better than the stock market in another country. This is often driven by currency capital flows from the country with the weaker stock market to the country with the stronger one.

US Dollar Index - Daily


Latest STOCK INDICES Analysis

Editors' picks

EUR/USD eases toward 1.1700 as USD finds fresh demand

EUR/USD eases toward 1.1700 as USD finds fresh demand

EUR/USD eases toward the 1.1700 mark in early Europe on Friday. The pair faces headwinds from a renewed uptick in the US Dollar as investors look past softer US inflation data. However, the EUR/USD downside appears capped by expectations of Fed-ECB monetary policy divergence. 

 

USD/JPY extends gains above 156.00 after BoJ

USD/JPY extends gains above 156.00 after BoJ

USD/JPY sees a fresh leg higher and regains the 156.00 level on Friday. The Japanese Yen struggles to attract buyers even after BoJ Governor Ueda noted that they rate hikes will continue if economy develops as per projections, while the US Dollar clings to recovery gains, allowing the pair to hold its ground.

Gold seems vulnerable as USD bulls shrug off softer US CPI

Gold seems vulnerable as USD bulls shrug off softer US CPI

Gold extends the previous day's late pullback from the vicinity of the record high and attracts some follow-through selling during the Asian session on Friday. The US CPI report released on Thursday pointed to cooling of inflationary pressure.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple correction slide as BoJ rate decision weighs on sentiment

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple correction slide as BoJ rate decision weighs on sentiment

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple are extending their correction phases after losing nearly 3%, 8%, and 10%, respectively, through Friday. The pullback phase is further strengthened as the upcoming Bank of Japan’s rate decision on Friday weighs on risk sentiment, with BTC breaking key support, ETH deepening weekly losses, and XRP sliding to multi-month lows.

Here is what you need to know on Friday, December 19:

Here is what you need to know on Friday, December 19:

Here is what you need to know on Friday, December 19:

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