ECB (European Central Bank)
ECB: Wage pressures point to later rate hikes – Nomura
Nomura’s Global Markets Research team argues that persistent wage pressures in the Euro area will keep inflation risks elevated in 2027–2028.
ECB: Policy rate seen steady through 2027 – Danske Bank
Danske Bank analysts note that for a fifth straight meeting the ECB kept its key policy rate at 2.00%, in line with expectations. President Lagarde emphasized strong labour markets and solid balance sheets.
ECB’s Lagarde: We expect inflation to stabilise sustainably at our 2% medium term target
ECB President Christine Lagarde said that they expect inflation to stabilise sustainably at the ECB's 2% medium-term target, during the plenary debate on the state of the Eurozone economy and ECB activities in Strasbourg, France, on Monday.
ECB latest analysis
ECB LATEST NEWS
Related content
Editors' picks
EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900
EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.
GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650
GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.
Gold clings to gains just above $5,000/oz
Gold is reclaiming part of the ground lost on Wednesday’s marked decline, as bargain-hunters keep piling up and lifting prices past the key $5,000 per troy ounce. The precious metal’s move higher is also underpinned by the slight pullback in the US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.
Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP in choppy price action, weighed down by falling institutional interest
Bitcoin's upside remains largely constrained amid weak technicals and declining institutional interest. Ethereum trades sideways above $1,900 support with the upside capped below $2,000 amid ETF outflows.
Week ahead – Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight
US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
Big Picture
what is the ECB?
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone. With its beginnings in Germany in 1998, the ECB's mandate is to maintain price stability in the Eurozone, so that the Euro's (EUR) purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. As an entity independent of individual European Union countries and institutions, the ECB targets a year-on-year increase in consumer prices of 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is controlling the money supply. This involves, for instance, setting interest rates throughout the Eurozone. The European Central Bank's work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde has been the President of the ECB since November 1, 2019. Her speeches, statements and comments are an important source of volatility, especially for the Euro and the currencies traded against the European currency.
who is ECB's President?
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Lagarde, who graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense, became President of the European Central Bank (ECB) on November 1, 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007-2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005-2007).
Lagarde on How to trade the ECB interest-rate decision
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Prior to the rate decision:
- Many traders buy the rumors and square their positions shortly after the decision is made. For instance, if the market believes that the European Central Bank (ECB) will hike interest rates, traders buy the Euro (EUR) and close the position shortly after the announcement. On the other hand, if the expectation is a rate cut, traders will short the Euro and square the position after the announcement.
After the rate decision:
- If the market's expectations differ from the actual rate decision, there can be some excellent trading opportunities.
- If the market expects a rate hike but the European Central Bank ends up cutting rates, a short-term (1-2 hours) selling the Euro could be successful.
- If the market expects a rate cut but the ECB raises rates, a short-term long position on the Euro (1-2 hours) may be advantageous.
More generally, relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa.
Hike, cut or keep interest rates unchanged
The European Central Bank's (ECB) decision on interest rates always has an effect on the Euro (EUR).
When interest rates increase, the European Central Bank is selling government securities to large financial firms. In turn, the financial organizations are paying in euros for these securities. This effectively decreases the amount of currency circulating in the economy. A decreasing supply leads to higher demand and therefore causes the value of the Euro to appreciate.
When the interest rates decrease, the European Central Bank floods the market with euros. This is done by purchasing government securities from financial organizations. In return for the securities, these banks and financial deals are paid in euros, therefore increasing the supply of euros in the economy. As supply increases, the value of the Euro depreciates.
the world interest rates table
The World Interest Rates Table reflects the current interest rates of the main countries around the world, set by their respective Central Banks. Rates typically reflect the health of individual economies, as in a perfect scenario, Central Banks tend to rise rates when the economy is growing and therefore instigate inflation.
some concepts you need to know
In practical terms, QE means that central banks create money out of nothing to buy securities, such as government bonds. This new money swells the size of bank reserves by the quantity of assets purchased and that's why this programme is called Quantitative Easings. The money supply is intended to flood financial institutions with capital in an effort to stimulate lending and increase liquidity.
Much of the governments' debt is held by banks in the Eurozone and the ECB wants them to give more credits. If the European Central Bank buys government bonds, their prices rise and profitability drop even more. This is a liquidity-providing operation that weakens the value of the euro. This depreciation makes European exports cheaper and competitive, and ultimately, helps in recovering. In addition, as a result of the stimulus to internal and external consumption, the ECB combats the risk of deflation, a widespread and prolonged drop in prices, as well as the high unemployment.