Gold Forecast and News
Gold declines despite Fed rate cut hopes as US inflation cools
Gold price keeps pushing lower below $4,350 in Asian trading hours on Friday. The precious metal stays in the red due to some profit-taking and weak long liquidation from shorter-term futures traders.
Latest XAU/USD News
XAU/USD Technical Overview
The XAU/USD pair holds above the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently pegged around the $4,313 area. The upward slope supports a mild intraday bullish bias as long as this dynamic support contains pullbacks. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slips below the Signal line and holds in negative territory. Moreover, the widening negative histogram suggests strengthening bearish pressure. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 52.82 (neutral), easing toward the midline. Holding above the rising 100 SMA would keep dips supported, while a clear break back below that average would open the door to a deeper retracement.
Fundamental Overview
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller – one of five finalists to potentially succeed Jerome Powell – said on Wednesday that he will emphasize the importance of central bank independence to US President Donald Trump. Waller further added that given the outlook, there is no rush to get down on interest rates. This, in turn, assists the USD to preserve its recovery gains from the lowest level since early October, touched following the release of mixed US employment details earlier this week.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the economy added 64K jobs in November, beating consensus estimates for a 50K increase. This, however, was offset by October's dismal figures, which showed that payrolls declined by 105K on the back of the longest-ever US government shutdown. Moreover, a rise in the Unemployment Rate to 4.6%, or the highest level since September 2021, and signs of slowing growth in wages, backs the case for further easing by the US central bank.
The view was echoed by Fed's Waller, saying that the US central bank still has room to cut interest rates amid evident signs of labor market weakness. The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections in December penciled in just one rate reduction in 2026, though traders have been pricing in the possibility of two rate cuts next year. This is holding back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and might continue to act as a tailwind for the non-yielding Gold amid a generally weaker risk tone.
Investors remain on edge amid persistent concerns over stretched valuations and prospects for further policy tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Apart from this, worries about the health of the world's two largest economies – the US and China – keep the global risk sentiment on the defensive and should further contribute to limiting the downside for the safe-haven Gold. Furthermore, traders seem reluctant ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due later this Thursday.
The crucial inflation data would influence expectations about the Fed's future rate-cut path, which, in turn, will play a key role in driving the USD demand in the near-term and determining the next leg of a directional move for the Gold. Nevertheless, the aforementioned supportive fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD pair remains to the upside. Hence, any meaningful corrective decline might still be seen as a buying opportunity and remain shallow.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: XAU/USD poised to challenge record highs Premium
Gold prices added roughly 3% in the week, flirting with the $4,350 mark on Friday, to finally settle at around $4,330. Despite its safe-haven condition, the bright metal rallied in a risk-on scenario, amid broad US Dollar (USD) weakness.
Latest XAU/USD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD trims gains, nears 1.1700
The EUR/USD pair eases in the American afternoon and approaches the 1.1700 mark. The pair surged earlier in the day after the ECB left interest rates unchanged and upwardly revised inflation and growth figures. The US CPI rose 2.7% YoY in November, nearing Fed’s goal.
GBP/USD steadies below 1.3400 as traders digest BoE policy update and US inflation data
The GBP/USD pair stalls the previous day's pullback from the vicinity of mid-1.3400s and a nearly two-month high, though it struggles to attract meaningful buyers during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3380-1.3385 region, up only 0.05% for the day, amid mixed cues.
USD/JPY extends gains above 156.00 after the expected BoJ rate hike
USD/JPY sees a fresh leg higher and regains the 156.00 level in Friday's Asian trading. The Japanese Yen loses further ground, digesting the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) expected 25 bps rate hike to 0.75%. Traders now look to Governor Ueda's press conference for fresh directives.
Gold declines despite Fed rate cut hopes as US inflation cools
Gold price keeps pushing lower below $4,350 in Asian trading hours on Friday. The precious metal stays in the red due to some profit-taking and weak long liquidation from shorter-term futures traders.
WTI edges lower below $56.50 on US Dollar strength, weak China demand
West Texas Intermediate, the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $56.30 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The WTI price declines amid a modest rebound in the US Dollar and signs of weak Chinese energy demand.
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XAU/USD YEARLY FORECAST
XAU/USD 2025 FORECAST
In the XAU/USD 2025 Forecast, FXStreet analyst Eren Sengezer suggests Gold’s 2025 outlook depends on Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, Donald Trump’s decisions and geopolitics. A bearish scenario could unfold if geopolitical tensions ease, inflation remains persistent and United States-China trade tensions weaken China’s economy, reducing Gold demand. A hawkish Fed could also pressure prices.
On the bullish side, continued global policy easing, a recovering Chinese economy or escalating geopolitical conflicts could boost safe-haven flows into Gold, supporting its resilience and pushing prices higher.
Gold's technical outlook suggests weakening bullish momentum, with the RSI at its lowest since February and XAU/USD. Key support lies at $2,530-$2,500, with further declines potentially targeting $2,400 and $2,300. On the upside, resistance at $2,900 could limit gains, with additional barriers at $3,000-$3,020 and $3,130 if Gold attempts a new record high.
MOST INFLUENTIAL FACTORS IN 2025 FOR XAU/USD
In 2025, Gold's outlook will be shaped by the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, geopolitical tensions and central bank demand. If geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict or Middle East issues, de-escalate, Gold may face downward pressure after benefiting from these crises in 2024. Central bank demand will also be crucial and any slowdown in buying could weigh on prices.
About Gold
Gold (XAU/USD)
In the Forex market, Gold functions as a currency. The particularity of Gold is that it is traded against the United States Dollar (USD), with the internationally accepted code for gold being XAU.
Known as a safe-haven asset, Gold is expected to appreciate in periods of market volatility and economic uncertainty. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. The United States is the country that holds the biggest resources of Gold in the world.
The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollars are needed to purchase one troy ounce of Gold.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold prices escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher borrowing costs usually weigh on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars. A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- WGC (World Gold Council) is the market development organization for the Gold industry. Its aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for the precious metal.
- LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) is an organization whose members participate in this wholesale over-the-counter market for trading Gold and Silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most LBMA members are major international banks, bullion dealers, and refiners.
- COMEX (Commodity Exchange) is the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and joined the CME Group in 2008.
- CGSE (Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange Society) is an organization of Gold trading firms in Hong Kong that are participants of the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange, the first exchange in Hong Kong.
- Central banks like the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the People's Bank of China (PBoC) significantly influence Gold prices through their monetary policies.
PEOPLE THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Neal Froneman, the World Gold Council’s Chairman.
- Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary.
- Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China.
- The London Bullion Market Association members.
CIRCUMSTANCES THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
The main variables traders should monitor to understand Gold’s position are:
- Demand and supply: The balance between global Gold demand and its availability impacts its price.
- Economic uncertainty and currency devaluation: Gold is widely known as a safe-haven asset for investors in periods of economic uncertainty or when a currency faces devaluation.
- Practical applications: The use of Gold in technology innovations, jewelry manufacturing and other industrial applications.
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD
- Currencies: The US Dollar (USD) and the Euro (EUR) are the primary currencies influencing Gold prices. Other important currency pairs include EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: Silver and Gold are the most important precious metal commodities.
- Bonds: Influential fixed-income securities include the German Bund (a federal government-issued bond) and the US Treasury Note (T-Note).
- Indices: Key indices related to Gold and mining include the HUI (NYSE Arca Gold BUGS), the XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index) and the GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index).
- Exchanges: The most important stock exchanges for Gold are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the Chicago Board of Trade, the Euronext/LIFFE, the London Bullion Market, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the Bolsa der Mercadorias e Futuros and the Korea Futures Exchange.