Steve Ruffley
SteveRuffley.com
Summary
The Elliot Wave theory is another great example of a technical analysis tool that relies on the ‘self-fulfilling’’ nature of trading. The trick with interpreting the Elliot wave in my opinion is certainly on the 3rd wave. The Elliott Wave Principle posits that collective investor psychology, or crowd psychology, moves between optimism and pessimism in natural sequences. These mood swings create patterns evidenced in the price movements of markets at every degree of trend or time scale. In Elliott's model, market prices alternate between an impulsive, or motive phase, and a corrective phase on all time scales of trend, as the illustration shows. Impulses are always subdivided into a set of 5 lower-degree waves, alternating again between motive and corrective character, so that waves 1, 3, and 5 are impulses, and waves 2 and 4 are smaller retraces of waves 1 and 3. Corrective waves subdivide into 3 smaller-degree waves starting with a five-wave counter-trend impulse, a retrace, and another impulse. In a bear market the dominant trend is downward, so the pattern is reversed—five waves down and three up. Motive waves always move with the trend, while corrective waves move against it. Personally I never trade the Elliot wave on the way up, only on the way down. This is a much more robust way of making sure you apply the correct rules and make maximum profits. I will show you how I trade, then you will not be trading the ‘theory’ but the resulting price correction and action.Latest Live Videos
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD rebounds from session lows, stays below 1.1650
EUR/USD is recovers modestly from session lows but remains in the red below 1.1650 in European trading on Thursday. The pair faces headwinds from a renewed uptick in the US Dollar amid a negative shift in risk sentiment. Surging energy prices due to the Middle East war keep the bearish pressure intact on the Euro. The US Jobless Claims data are next of note.
GBP/USD stays weak near 1.3350 amid UK stagflation risks
GBP/USD sticks to losses near 1.3350 in the European session on Thursday. The Pound Sterling loses ground amid fears that the United Kingdom economy could face stagflation risks due to higher energy prices, while the US Dollar attracts fresh havem demand ahead of the US Jobless Claims data.
Gold climbs near $5,200 as Iran war fuels safe-haven demand
Gold price extends its gains for the second successive session on Thursday as traders seek safety amid the ongoing war in the Middle East. US and Israeli strikes across Iranian territory and widespread Iranian missile and drone retaliation across the Middle East, including attacks on regional targets and military sites, prolong the crisis and its impact.
Three reasons to be bearish on Bitcoin
Bitcoin is holding up well taking into account the uncertainty stemming from the Middle East. Despite this week’s rally, the long-term outlook remains bearish. Here are three reasons why I think the storm for the largest cryptocurrency isn't over yet.
Markets attempt to rally on positive news from Iran
There’s been an abrupt change in sentiment this morning, European stock markets are higher and oil and gas prices are moderating, after comments from Iran’s deputy minister about pre-conflict talks between Iran and the US.
Here is what you need to know on Thursday, March 5:
Financial markets remain risk-averse in the second half of the week as the conflict in the Middle East widens. The US economic calendar will feature mid-tier macroeconomic data releases, while investors will remain focused on geopolitical headlines.