USD/CAD Exchange rate
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD recovers from two-year lows, stays below 1.0450
EUR/USD recovers modestly and trades above 1.0400 after setting a two-year low below 1.0350 following the disappointing PMI data from Germany and the Eurozone on Friday. Market focus shifts to November PMI data releases from the US.
GBP/USD falls to six-month lows below 1.2550, eyes on US PMI
GBP/USD extends its losses for the third successive session and trades at a fresh fix-month low below 1.2550 on Friday. Disappointing PMI data from the UK weigh on Pound Sterling as investors await US PMI data releases.
Gold price refreshes two-week high, looks to build on momentum beyond $2,700 mark
Gold price hits a fresh two-week top during the first half of the European session on Friday, with bulls now looking to build on the momentum further beyond the $2,700 mark. This marks the fifth successive day of a positive move and is fueled by the global flight to safety amid persistent geopolitical tensions stemming from the intensifying Russia-Ukraine war.
S&P Global PMIs set to signal US economy continued to expand in November
The S&P Global preliminary PMIs for November are likely to show little variation from the October final readings. Markets are undecided on whether the Federal Reserve will lower the policy rate again in December.
Eurozone PMI sounds the alarm about growth once more
The composite PMI dropped from 50 to 48.1, once more stressing growth concerns for the eurozone. Hard data has actually come in better than expected recently – so ahead of the December meeting, the ECB has to figure out whether this is the PMI crying wolf or whether it should take this signal seriously. We think it’s the latter.
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Signatures
USD/CAD, THE “LOONIE”
The USD/CAD tells the trader how many Canadian dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one U.S. dollar (the base currency). This currency pair is known as the "Loonie", a nickname derived from the picture of a loon, a distinctive bird which appears on one side of Canada's gold-coloured, one Dollar coin.
THE IMPORTANCE OF OIL FOR THE LOONIE
The USD/CAD is one of the three so-called “commodity pairs”, together with AUD/USD, NZD/USD, highly correlated to commodity (especially oil) fluctuations.
Canada is commonly known as a resource-based economy being a large producer and supplier of oil. The leading export market for Canada is by far the United States making its currency particularly sensitive to US consumption data and economical health.
FORECAST FOR 2024
The USD/CAD will see diverging central bank policy as a key driver through 2024, and the correlation between the Canadian Dollar and Crude Oil is likely to hold firm through the upcoming trading year. Despite musings in recent years about a shakeout in the Loonie-Crude connection, 2023 saw USD/CAD and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil moving around the charts in lockstep.
The Canadian economy is expected to run into headwinds through the second half of 2024, coinciding with a global growth slowdown that could hamper Crude Oil prices next year as fossil fuels demand flounders in low-growth or recessionary environments.
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE USD/CAD THE MOST
- Commodities: oil but also gold and natural gas are to be taken into account.
- Currencies: JPY and EUR. This group also includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD, GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY
- Bonds: CSB (Canada Savings Bonds), CPB (Canada Premium Bond).
- Indices: S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index (the headline index for the Canadian equity market), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (index of global gold securities) and S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index (benchmarks for related derivative products of Canadian economic sectors).
ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE USD/CAD
In Canada, the organizations and people that affect the most the moves of the USD/CAD pair are:
- Bank of Canada (BoC, Canada’s Central bank) that promotes a safe and sound financial system within tyhe country, issuing statements and deciding on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Tiff Macklem.
- Canadian Government (headed by Justin Trudeau) and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
- CAPP (Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers): Canada being a prominent oil and natural gas producer, the trade organization of that industry is very important.
In the USA, we have:
- The US Government (and its President Joe Biden): events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case the Canadian Dollar.
- Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.
In terms of economic data, we should highlight the Trade Account Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the USD/CAD. If a steady demand in exchange for CAD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the CAD.
Inflation is another economic value that is important for the USD/CAD pair. It is measured among others by the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index). They are key indicators to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends.