- Dr. Stefan Friedrichowski is physicist and full-time trader and manages the scientific work and the development of trading strategies and Christian Stern is full-time trader and heads the treasury and the education department at Trading Stars.
Traders always search for volatility – there is even a dependency of it, because without market movements you will not earn profits. Around the time of the publication of important economic news the stock markets often show erratic movements in many underlyings. We show you how to use these movements successfully with an example of EUR/USD.
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The Trading Idea There are days when prices only move in slow-motion – there are only sideways phases and many false breakouts. But then there are days where everything changes: dynamic breakouts up or down, sometimes even to both sides within minutes. These events can take place completely unplanned (for example because of attacks, riots, natural disasters) or predictably at big news-events like the publication of the gross domestic product (GDP) or the NFP-data (non-farm payrolls) or a press conference of the Fed. Dynamic price movements take place, but you know the date and time in advance. We want to introduce a trading idea based on the monthly ECB-interest rate decision and we want to show that we can recognise a mathematical probability advantage and use it for a real profit.
An old saying goes: “Close your trades prior to important news or at least protect them with a stop-loss.”
This is absolutely true. There may be some insiders who know in advance what will be published, but the reaction of the market is hard to predict. For example nonfarm payroll data is published and they are better than expected, which should mean a bullish move. But maybe because of this the market fears that the monetary measures will be reduced and therefore the DAX drops 100 points. In hindsight we can always explain the “Why”. But to be honest, this could be an explanation for the contrary as well. The consequence is clear: Stay still and close open positions – unless you want to trade the news systematically.
Editors’ Picks
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EUR/USD drops below 1.0450 as USD gathers strength
EUR/USD stays on the back foot and trades below 1.0450 on Wednesday. The cautious market stance helps the US Dollar (USD) stay resilient against its rivals and weighs on the pair as markets wait for the Federal Reserve to publish the minutes of the January policy meeting.
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Gold climbs to new all-time high near $2,950
Gold retreats slightly from the all-time high it touched at $2,947 but manages to stay above $2,930 on Wednesday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield clings to modest gains above 4.55%, limiting XAU/USD's upside.
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GBP/USD retreats below 1.2600 despite strong UK inflation data
GBP/USD struggles to hold its ground and trades in the red below 1.2600 on Wednesday. Earlier in the day, the data from the UK showed that the annual CPI inflation climbed to 3% in January from 2.5% in December. Market focus shifts to FOMC Minutes.
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Maker Price Forecast: MKR generates highest daily revenue of $10 million
Maker (MKR) price extends its gains by 6%, trading around $1,189 on Wednesday after rallying more than 20% so far this week. Artemis data shows that MKR generated $10 million in revenue on February 10, the new yearly high in daily revenue.
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Money market outlook 2025: Trends and dynamics in the Eurozone, US, and UK
We delve into the world of money market funds. Distinct dynamics are at play in the US, eurozone, and UK. In the US, repo rates are more attractive, and bills are expected to appreciate. It's also worth noting that the Fed might cut rates more than anticipated, similar to the UK. In the eurozone, unsecured rates remain elevated.
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