Brandon Wendell, CMT
Brandon Wendell
Traders and investors in the Indian equity markets have been enjoying watching as prices have been breaking to all-time highs. Of course the big question in everyone’s mind is where will this bull run end and is there anything I can do to protect my capital when it does? While no one can predict exactly where this price movement will reverse since there is no supply level above to signal this, there are some tools that traders can use to identify when the bullish pressure has subsided and therefore marked the time for profit taking in your portfolio.
One of the most common methods is to use a moving average on your chart. The average summarizes the past trend and momentum and when prices start breaking down below it, you have likely seen the end of your trend. There are two problems with using moving averages. First, they are lagging and give very late signals. Secondly, since they are lagging, you are likely to have given back some profits you have made in the previous trend before you exit.
To reduce the lag and hopefully exit with more profits, many traders will look to advanced technical analysis tools such as the Fibonacci Extension tool. This uses the Fibonacci numerical sequence to project probable price points in the future where price may turn. The problem is that the price may only use these areas as pausing points rather than reversal areas and you could be exiting prematurely.
Price is usually the best indicator. Using the definition of a trend can help you identify when the trend is reversing and action is needed on longer term trades and positions.
Again you can see that using this method will not necessarily get you out with the greatest profit but it will protect your money against a large drawdown. Perhaps a combination of the above methods would be a better plan for your trading and investing. To learn more on how to identify market turning points and timing these turns, join us at one of our courses at Online Trading Academy today.
Neither Freedom Management Partners nor any of its personnel are registered broker-dealers or investment advisers. I will mention that I consider certain securities or positions to be good candidates for the types of strategies we are discussing or illustrating. Because I consider the securities or positions appropriate to the discussion or for illustration purposes does not mean that I am telling you to trade the strategies or securities. Keep in mind that we are not providing you with recommendations or personalized advice about your trading activities. The information we are providing is not tailored to any individual. Any mention of a particular security is not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security or a suggestion that it is suitable for any specific person. Keep in mind that all trading involves a risk of loss, and this will always be the situation, regardless of whether we are discussing strategies that are intended to limit risk. Also, Freedom Management Partners’ personnel are not subject to trading restrictions. I and others at Freedom Management Partners could have a position in a security or initiate a position in a security at any time.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD trims gains, back below 1.1800
EUR/USD now loses some upside momentum, returning to the area below the 1.1800 support as the Greenback manages to regain some composure following the SCOTUS-led pullback earlier in the session.
GBP/USD off highs, recedes to the sub-1.3500 area
Following earlier highs north of 1.3500 the figure, GBP/USD now faces some renewed downside pressure, revisiting the 1.3490 zone as the US Dollar manages to regain some upside impulse in the latter part of the NA session on Friday.
USD/JPY sticks to gains above 155.00, over one-week top ahead of US data
The USD/JPY pair gains positive traction for the third straight day and climbs to over a one-week top, around the 155.35-155.40 region. Data released early today showed that Japan’s key inflation gauge eased to the slowest pace in two years, tempering expectations for an immediate policy tightening by the Bank of Japan.
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD: US Dollar comeback in the makes? Premium
The US Dollar (USD) stands victorious at the end of another week, with the EUR/USD pair trading near a four-week low of 1.1742, while the USD retains its strength despite some discouraging American data released at the end of the week.
Gold: Escalating geopolitical tensions help limit losses Premium
Gold (XAU/USD) struggled to make a decisive move in either direction this week as it quickly recovered above $5,000 after posting losses on Monday and Tuesday.
GBP/USD: Pound Sterling braces for more pain, as 200-day SMA tested Premium
The Pound Sterling (GBP) crashed to its lowest level in a month against the US Dollar (USD), as critical support levels were breached in a data-packed week.
Bitcoin: No recovery in sight
Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to trade within a range-bound zone, hovering around $67,000 at the time of writing on Friday, and falling slightly so far this week, with no signs of recovery.
US Dollar: Tariffed. Now What? Premium
The US Dollar (USD) reversed its previous week’s decline, managing to stage a meaningful rebound and retesting the area just above the 98.00 barrier when tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY).
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