FXStreet Expert Contributor
FXStreet
Each month in Munich, the IFO Institute for Economic Research releases the IFO business climate survey. This is one of the most important economic figures for many Forex traders. The IFO Report is a figure that measures the results of 7,000 questionnaires completed by major German companies. The report measures the sentiment of the current and near future business climates. German companies have three options for responses when filling out the current business climate section of this survey; Good, Satisfactory, and Poor. For the near term climate questionnaire the firms have the following three options; Most Favorable, Unchanged, and More Unfavorable.
Basic Categories of the IFO Report:
Manufacturing
Construction
Whole sale
Retail sale
Understanding the Statistic:
The baseline of the IFO report is 100 points, and each month the number can fluctuate by 100 points above or below this baseline figure.
- An IFO report reading of 100 shows that the business climate has remained neutral.
- An IFO report reading above 100 means that the business climate has become healthier. The higher the number, the healthier the business climate.
- A strong economy might lead to inflationary pressure, which will in turn cause the ECB to tighten the interest rate. In this scenario, a tighter interest rate will lead to an appreciation of the Euro.
- An IFO report reading that falls below 100 signifies an unfavorable business climate which could lead to an economic slowdown or recession. To keep away from a recession, the ECB may decide to cut interest rates, which will in turn lead to a depreciating Euro.
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Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD weakens to near 1.0350 on Fed hawkish cut, stronger US data
The EUR/USD pair trades with a mild negative bias around 1.0360 during the early Asian session on Friday. The major pair remains on the defensive as the US Federal Reserve adopted a less dovish stance despite cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting on Wednesday.
GBP/USD extends slide approaches 1.2500 after BoE rate decision
GBP/USD stays on the back foot and break lower, nearing 1.2500 after the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decisions. The BoE maintained the bank rate at 4.75% as expected, but the accompanying statement leaned to dovish, while three out of nine MPC members opted for a cut.
USD/JPY advances to a five-week high, around 158.00 neighborhood
USD/JPY hit a five-month top on Friday in the wake of the Fed's hawkish outlook and the BoJ's decision to keep interest rates steady. Bulls largely shrugged off data showing that Japan's National CPI rose in November, which bodes well for an additional interest rate hike by the BoJ.
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD remains vulnerable near 26-month low amid bullish USD
AUD/USD holds steady above the 0.6200 mark on Friday, though it remains close to its lowest level since October 2022 touched the previous day. The USD hovers near a two-year top on the back of the Fed's hawkish signal and a weaker risk tone. Furthermore, the RBA's dovish shift, concerns about China's economic recovery and trade war fears undermine the Aussie.
USD/JPY advances to a five-week high, around 158.00 neighborhood
USD/JPY hit a five-month top on Friday in the wake of the Fed's hawkish outlook and the BoJ's decision to keep interest rates steady. Bulls largely shrugged off data showing that Japan's National CPI rose in November, which bodes well for an additional interest rate hike by the BoJ.
Gold price oscillates in a range below $2,600 amid mixed cues
Gold price consolidates below the $2,600 mark following the previous day's good two-way price move and remains close to over a one-month low. The Fed signaled a cautious path of policy easing next year, which remains supportive of elevated US bond yields and assists the USD in standing firm near a two-year high.
Bitcoin's trajectory shows similarities with previous cycles as long-term holders book profits of $2.1 billion
Glassnode's Week on Chain report revealed the similarities between the current Bitcoin uptrend and previous cycles amid changing market conditions. Meanwhile, long-term investors began distributing their tokens at the $100K level, culminating in a new all-time high of $2.1 billion in realized profits.
Bank of England stays on hold, but a dovish front is building
Bank of England rates were maintained at 4.75% today, in line with expectations. However, the 6-3 vote split sent a moderately dovish signal to markets, prompting some dovish repricing and a weaker pound. We remain more dovish than market pricing for 2025.
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