Vladimir Mihaylov
Independent Analyst
We have the ECB meeting this week and the eyes are on mr.Draghi. He said recently that ECB is ready to act in March. What means this si still not clear and the market is in a consolidation mode for the last two weeks. I expect it to remain in this state until Wednesday too. For no the price is locked between 1.0970 and 1.1050. Of course breaking of either is possible before ECB meeting, but the final direction will be determined after the decision is released. Any further cut of the ECB stimulus program is going to boost the upside and we are going to attack monthly Senkou Span A price at 1.1190 and the main resistance line at 1.1540, while any increase of the stimulus will encourege bears who will push the EUR to 1.0590 and below for the rest of the month. What exactly will happen we shall see.GOLD continues to gain price as expected in my last week's forecast. Seems the 'flag' formation has done its job. We have resistances at 1310 and 1335, and i do not expect the second one to be broken this month. But please note we have some possibility to reach it. First support is 1238 then 1224. Below the second further drop is possible so quit longs.NZD upside continues but seems not steady enough, however above 0.6760 we are bullish. Any daily close below 0.6750 will put the pair into a correction lower state, so follow closely the price movement and place SL. This week we shall have the rate decision here too, change is not expected, but who knows???AUD had a powerful last week, but currently the price is facing the weekly Senkou Span A price at 0.7490. Main support is at 0.7250, below this one further downside is expected. We have an intermediate support at 0.7330.JPY for now consolidates above 113.00, we have first resistance at 115.00 and the second stronger at 116.30 which i don't expect to be broken soon. Use any upside to open fresh Short positions. The outlook is bearish below 115.50.GBP shows good volatility and gained last week from 1.3800 to 1.4200. Please note that we are still below the 1.4340 resistance and as long as we are below it the outlook is bearish. Only a daily close above 1.4450 could change the bearish outlook. If the price closes below 1.4040 sell again.RUB performs good against the dollar, and keeps the pair's price close to 71.00 however it still cannot break it lower. Once this happens the price will continue to 68.40 whis is the next support. Above 75.00 some upside is possible and above 78.50 the upside will be fully restored.For today:LONG EUR above 1.0950 SL 1.0935 TP 1.1040-1.1070SHORT EUR below 1.1050 SL 1.1065 TP 1.0970-1.0940LONG GOLD above 1255 SL 1253 TP 1269-1274SHORT GOLD below 1285 SL 1288 TP 1278-1275
Good luck!
Good luck!
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