AUD/USD Forecast and News
AUD/USD holds steady above 0.6500 on softer USD, ahead of US Jobless Claims, FedSpeak
AUD/USD regains positive traction following the overnight pullback from a one-week top. A softer USD and a positive risk tone benefit the Aussie amid the RBA’s hawkish stance. Traders look to the US macro data and the Fed speaks for some meaningful opportunities.
Latest Australian Dollar News
AUD/USD Technical Overview
The AUD/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers on Thursday and sticks to its modest intraday gains, around the 0.6520 area during the first half of the European session. The uptick is sponsored by a softer tone surrounding the US Dollar (USD), though lacks bullish conviction and warrants some caution before positioning for an extension of the recent bounce from a three-month low touched last week.
Fundamental Overview
The USD bulls opt to move to the sidelines and look for more clarity on US President-elect Donald Trump's proposed policies before placing fresh. Moreover, the initial reaction to Russian President Vladimir Putin's approval to lower the threshold for nuclear strikes on Tuesday turned out to be short-lived after comments from Russian and US officials eased concerns about a nuclear war. This, in turn, remains supportive of the upbeat market mood, which further seems to undermine the safe-haven buck and benefits the risk-sensitive Aussie.
Furthermore, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish stance offers additional support to the Australian Dollar (AUD). In fact, the minutes of the November RBA meeting released earlier this week indicated that the board members remained vigilant to upside inflation risks and stressed the importance of maintaining a restrictive monetary policy. Meanwhile, expectations for a less dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) should continue to act as a tailwind for the USD and hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the AUD/USD pair.
In fact, the markets are now pricing in just over a 50% chance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points in December amid expectations that Trump's taunted tariffs and tax cuts could reignite inflation. The outlook remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and supports prospects for the emergence of some USD dip-buying. This, in turn, should contribute to capping the upside for the AUD/USD pair. Traders now look to the US macro data and speeches by influential FOMC members for a fresh impetus.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly AUD/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Australian Dollar-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
AUD/USD: Interim top confirmed, 0.7000 at risk Premium
The AUD/USD pair kept falling in the last few days, reaching a fresh multi-week low of 0.7263 on Friday, to close the trading week a handful of pips above it.
AUD/USD Big Picture
AUD/USD Bullish Themes
AUD/USD Bearish Themes
Latest AUD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD challenges 1.0500 on Dollar's bounce
The US Dollar now picks up further pace and weighs on the risk-associated assets, sending EUR/USD to the boundaries of the key 1.0500 region and at shouting distance from its 2024 lows.
GBP/USD remains weak and puts 1.2600 to the test
GBP/USD remains on the back foot and now approaches the key support at 1.2600 the figure in response to the resurgence of the bid bias in the Greenback.
USD/JPY declines to near 154.00 even though US Dollar ticks up
USD/JPY falls to near 154.00 despite the US Dollar remaining firm. Donald Trump’s policies are expected to boost US inflation and economic growth. BoJ Ueda didn’t commit to an interest rate hike move for December.
Gold faces extra upside near term
Gold extends its bullish momentum further above $2,660 on Thursday. XAU/USD rises for the fourth straight day, sponsored by geopolitical risks stemming from the worsening Russia-Ukraine war. Markets await comments from Fed policymakers.
Crude Oil rallies to $70 on arrest warrant headlines being issued for Israel's PM Netanyahu
Crude Oil pops with Russia responding to Ukraine’s missile attacks by launching an intercontinental ballistic missile for the first time in the war. The International Criminal Court in Ter Hague issued an arrest warrant against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The US Dollar Index is looking for direction with a dovish Fed and safe haven inflows pulling the DXY in both directions.
Majors
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Signatures
AUD/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could AUD/USD move this year? Our experts make an AUD/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the Aussie-US Dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 AUD/USD forecast!
AUD/USD FORECAST 2024
The Australian Dollar (AUD) started 2023 on a high note, though slumped closer to its post-pandemic low against the USD during the latter part of the year. The currency clawed back some of its steep declines during the final two months of 2023, and the outlook seems sunnier in the wake of the prevalent bearish sentiment surrounding the Greenback. Read more details about the forecast.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR AUD/USD
Will the Fed will achieve a soft landing? The current market pricing for a more aggressive policy easing by the central bank next year might have already set the stage for a disappointment and favours the USD bulls. This should allow the USD to resume the prior uptrend witnessed since July 2023 and keep a lid on a runaway rally for the AUD/USD pair.
The upcoming US Presidential election could also play a key role in influencing the USD price dynamics and driving the aussie.
About AUD/USD
AUD/USD, The 'Aussie'
The AUD/USD pair, also called the “Aussie”, tells the trader how many US dollars (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Australian dollar (the base currency). This currency pair is also known as the "Aussie". Together with the New Zealand Dollar and the Canadian Dollar, the AUD is a commodity currency, that is a currency whose country's exports are largely comprised of raw materials (precious metals, oil, agriculture, etc.).
The interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have been among the highest of industrialized countries and the relatively high liquidity of the AUD has made it an attractive tool for carry traders looking for a currency with the highest yields. These factors made the AUD very popular among currency traders.
AUD/USD CORRELATIONS
Australia is a big exporter to China and its economy and currency reflect any change in the situation in that country. The prevailing view is that the Australian Dollar offers diversification benefits in a portfolio containing the major world currencies because of its greater exposure to Asian economies.
This correlation with the Shanghai stock exchange is to be added to the correlation it has with gold. The pair AUD/USD often rises and falls along with the price of gold. In the financial world, gold is viewed as a safe haven against inflation and it is one of the most traded commodities.
ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD
The AUD/USD news can be seriously affected by the decisions taken by these organizations and people:
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Michele Bullock.
- Australian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
- The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case, the Australian Dollar.
- Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.
In terms of economic data, as for most currencies, the AUDUSD traders have to keep an eye on:
- GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country. It is a gross measure of market activity because it indicates the pace at which a country's economy is growing or decreasing. Generally speaking, a high reading or a better than expected number is seen as positive for the AUD, while a low reading is negative.
- Inflation measured by key indicators as the CPI (Core Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index), which reflect changes in purchasing trends.
- Current Trade Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. If a steady demand in exchange for AUD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
Michele Bullock
Michele Bullock is an Australian economist who is currently governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. She commenced as governor on 18 September 2023, and is the first woman to hold the role. She is Chair of the Reserve Bank Board, Payments System Board and Council of Financial Regulators. Prior to her current role, Ms Bullock was the Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
Michele Bullock RBA's Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
RBA NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE AUD/USD THE MOST
- Currencies: NZD and JPY (New Zealand and Japan are important regional partners of Australia). Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: The most important is Gold, as already explained above, but also Iron Ore and Natural Gas.
- Bonds: GACGB10 (Australian Government Bonds Generic Yield 10 Year), GNZGB10 (New Zealand Government Bond 10 Year) and T-NOTE 10Y (10 year US Treasury note).
- Indices: S&P/ASX 200 (stocks of the Australian Securities Exchange), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (includes producers of gold and related products at the Toronto Stock Exchange).