Weekly Technical Outlook on USD/JPY : May 12, 2014

  WEEKLY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 11 May 2014     23:14GMT

Trend Daily Chart
Sideways

Daily Indicators
Falling

21 HR EMA
101.78

55 HR EMA
101.76

Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways

Hourly Indicators
Rising

13 HR RSI
62

14 HR DMI
+ve

Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more fall

Resistance
102.79 - Apr 29 high
102.19 - Last Tue's high (AUS)
102.01 - Last Wed's high

Support
101.32 - Apr low (10th)
100.76 - Feb 04 Low
100.00 - Psychological sup


. USD/JPY - 101.86.. The pair continued previous week's decline fm a 3-week high of 103.02 to 101.43 last Wed, cross-unwinding in yen lifted dlr to 102.01, price then traded sideways on Thu & Fri as market focus was on other dlr majors.

. Looking at the daily picture, although dlr's rebound fm 101.43 to 102.01 signals the early decline fm 103.02 (last Fri's high) has formed a temporary low there, however, aforesaid fall to 101.43 confirms recent erratic rise fm 101.32 (Apr low) has ended n consolidation with downside bias remains for further weakness, a daily close below 101.32 wud be the 1st indication decline fm 2014 5-year peak at 105.45 has possibly resumed n yield re-test of 100.76 (reaction low in Feb), break wud confirm this view n extend weakness to 99.60 (being 50% r of intermediate rise fm 93.75-105.45). On the upside, only a daily close abv 103.02 wud risk stronger gain twd pivotal res at 103.77 later this month.

. Today, dlr's close at Fri's high at 101.86 suggests initial choppy trading with near term upside bias remains, abv 102.01 is needed to bring stronger correction of said decline fm 103.02, reckon 102.23 (50% r) wud hold n yield another fall. So selling on intra-day recovery is the way to go.