EUR/USD: downward pressure growing

EUR/USD Current Price: 1.1215

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The American dollar edged higher against its European rivals for third day in-a-row, helped by late Monday FED's officer comments on a rate hike being possible as soon as next April, and a terrorist strike in Brussels which spurred risk aversion at the beginning of the London session. Stocks plummeted and safe-havens gained, and while equities trimmed most of their losses before the close, local currencies remained under pressure. 

Data coming from Europe generally surprised to the upside, as PMIs readings for March beat previous month numbers, with the Services sector clearly outperforming the manufacturing one. German Manufacturing PMI did disappoint slightly, falling from 50.5 to 50.4, but the IFO confidence index rebounded in March to 106.7, from 105.7 in March.  In the US, the Markit manufacturing PMI showed that growth in the sector is still subdued, as the figure was marginally up from 51.3 in February to current 51.4, whilst the Richmond FED manufacturing index bounced in March, from previous -4 to 22, showing that at least, local manufacturing activity expanded.

The EUR/USD fell as low as 1.1187 before recovering the 1.1200 level, having spent most of the American session consolidating above this last. The pair now develops within a descendant channel, which roof stands at 1.1230/40 for this Wednesday. The previous bullish trend has been affected with this retracement, although it will take a clear break below the 1.1100/20 region, a major static support, to confirm a shift towards the downside. In the meantime, the 4 hours chart presents a marked bearish tone, given that the 20 SMA has turned sharply lower above the current level, whilst the technical indicators keep heading south below their mid-lines. A recovery above 1.1245, however, should see the pair resuming its advance, and probably regaining the 1.1300 level.

Support levels: 1.1200 1.1160 1.1120

Resistance levels: 1.1245 1.1290 1.1340 

EUR/JPY Current price: 126.03

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The Japanese yen came under selling pressure during the American afternoon, erasing most of its early gains across the board triggered by demand of safe-havens on the back of the Brussels' terrorist attacks. The EUR/JPY pair recovered from a low set at 125.34 and trades near the daily high set at 126.26 at the beginning of the Asian session, on poor manufacturing data coming from Japan. Nevertheless, the market has been about sentiment ever since London opening, with the Japanese yen trading accordingly. The technical picture for the pair is short term positive, given that the price is currently consolidating above its 100 and 200 SMAs in the 1 hour chart, whilst the technical indicators have recovered above their mid-lines, although lacking directional strength. In the 4 hours chart, the price is above a bearish 200 SMA, currently around 125.75, while the technical indicators are heading slightly higher around their mid-lines, in a neutral-to-bullish stance. 

Support levels: 125.75 125.40 125.00 

Resistance levels: 126.50 126.90 127.40

GBP/USD Current price: 1.4262

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The Pound was among the worst daily performers, sharply lower after the London's opening bell as new terrorism attacks in Europe fueled risk of a Brexit. The pair fell initially to 1.4251, before the UK reported softer-than-expected inflation, which end up fueling the decline of the pair. Headline CPI rose 0.2%, below market's consensus, leaving the year-over-year rate unchanged at 0.3%.  The core rate was unchanged at 1.2%.  Also, the Input prices for producers was below expected while output price was not quite as soft as forecast.  The GBP/USD pair bottomed at 1.4189 daily basis, and has spent most of the US session consolidating around 1.4200, with short term selling interest surging on approaches to the 1.4250 level, now the immediate resistance. Short term, the 1 hour chart shows that the technical indicators maintain their bearish slopes within oversold levels, whilst the 20 SMA maintains a strong bearish slope well above the current level. In the 4 hours chart,  the price has accelerated below its 200 EMA, and is currently attached to the 38.2% retracement of this year's decline, while the technical indicators maintain strong bearish slopes near oversold levels, all of which supports additional declines towards 1.4160 first, the immediate support. 

Support levels: 1.4160 1.4120 1.4075

Resistance levels: 1.4250 1.4290 1.4330 

USD/JPY Current price: 112.39

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The USD/JPY trades at its highest in 3 days and near a daily high set at 112.48, with the Japanese yen under pressure amid poor local data. Japan’s March manufacturing PMI released at the beginning of the day, printed 49.1 against 50.5 expected and compared to 50.1 in February. An initial rally beyond 112.00 was erased by a bout of risk aversion at the beginning of the European session, but as stocks turned green, the pair jumped higher. Still far from reversing the long term bearish trend, the short term picture favors some additional gains as in the 1 hour chart, the price has recovered above its 100 SMA, while the technical indicators are currently losing upward strength near overbought territory, due to the diminishing volumes at this time of the day, rather than to suggest a bearish move. In the 4 hours chart, the Momentum indicator bounced sharply higher from its 100 level while the RSI indicator also heads north within positive territory, supporting a continued rally, should Asian shares emulate their American counterparts. 

Support levels: 112.10 111.70 111.30

Resistance levels: 112.45 112.90  113.30

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7614

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The Australian dollar reversed its latest losses against the greenback and advanced recovered the 0.7600 level, buoyed during the previous Asian session on optimistic remarks from RBA governor Glenn Stevens, who offered quite an optimistic outlook of the local economy.  A deep down to 0.7550 early Europe resulted in a quick, sharp bounce, indicating that buying the dips is still the way to go with the AUD/USD pair. The short term picture for the pair is bullish, as in the 1 hour chart, the price is currently developing above a bullish 20 SMA, while the technical indicators are within positive territory, but lacking directional strength.  In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture has turned neutral, as the technical indicators have recovered from near oversold levels, but remain unable to advance beyond their mid-lines, while the price is above a flat 20 SMA. Renewed buying interest above 0.7640, will likely send the pair to fresh highs beyond the 0.7700 figure, particularly if the positive mood prevails across the financial world. 

Support levels: 0.7590 0.7550 0.7510 

Resistance levels: 0.7640 0.7685 0.7720