Concerns over banking sector impedes risk appetite

Notes/Observations

- UK Retail Sales beats expectations but still down YoY; Back at pre-covid levels.

- Major EU PMIs components diverge with PMI Manufacturing misses for UK, France, Germany and Euro Zone (all remaining in contraction) while PMI Services all beat expectations and remain in expansion territory.

- US banks’ emergency borrowing from the Fed remain elevated.

- Equities fall with European Banking sector leading to the downside (-3.0%) for the session.

-Asia closed lower with Hang Seng -0.7%. EU indices are -0.7% to -2.0%. US futures are -0.1% to -0.4%. Gold -0.2%, DXY +0.3%; Commodity: Brent -1.2%, WTI -1.3%, TTF -0.9%; Crypto: BTC +1.9%, ETH +2.6%.

Asia

- Australia Mar Preliminary PMI Manufacturing registered its 1st contraction in 35 months (48.7 v 50.5 prior.

- Japan Mar Preliminary PMI Manufacturing registered its 5th straight contraction (48.6 v 47.7 prior).

- Japan Feb National CPI Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.3%e; CPI Ex-Fresh Food (Core) Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.1%e.

Europe

- EU and UK to adopt the Windsor Framework despite DUP opposition.

- ECB's Centeno (Portugal) stated that inflation was and still is too high.

Americas

- Treasury Sec Yellen stated that it was not job of treasury to be overseeing bank supervisors at Fed or FDIC. There were tools that could use again, for an institution of any size. Prepared for additional deposit actions if warranted; strong actions taken to ensure deposits are safe.

- Fed’s facility for foreign central banks got tapped for $60B in the week through March 22nd.

- House Republicans to put together a deal sheet of spending cuts that they would put in front of President Biden in exchange for their support for raising the US debt ceiling.

- Doubleline's Gundlach stated that he expected the Fed to cut rates 'substantially soon'.

Speakers/fixed income/FX/commodities/erratum

Equities

Indices [Stoxx600 -0.87% at 442.36, FTSE -1.35% at 7,398.01, DAX -1.17% at 15,032.05, CAC-40 -1.14% at 7,057.58, IBEX-35 -1.26% at 8,856.86, FTSE MIB -1.36% at 26,122.00, SMI -0.67% at 10,646.40, S&P 500 Futures -0.19%].

Market Focal Points/Key Themes: European indices open lower across the board and continued to slide into the red as the session wore on; consumer discretionary only sector marginally in the green; sectors leading to the downside include financials an energy; banking subsector seen weighing on indices; oil & gas subsector under pressure as crude prices underperform; Deutsche Bank trending lower on reports it reached settlement with Kingate; no major earnings expected in the upcoming US session.

Equities

- Consumer discretionary: JD Wetherspoon [JDW.UK] +8.5% (trading update), TUI [TUI1.DE] -9.5% (announces €1.8B capital increase for repayment of WSF state aid), Warpaint London [W7L.UK] +5.0% (trading update).

- Financials: UBS [UBSG.CH] -6.5% (analyst cut in Jefferies; Swiss authorities, UBS are pushing to close Credit Suisse deal as early as late Apr), Deutsche Bank [DBK.DE] -5.5% (said to settle claims; redeems some notes).

- Healthcare: GSK [GSK.UK] -3% (final Zantac Sargon ruling issued last night as part of California JCCP trial, denying GSK’s motion to dismiss defendants), Evotec [EVT.DE] -1.0% (receives $6.6M grant for drug discovery in tuberculosis).

- Industrials: Volkswagen [VOW.DE] -2.0% (analyst action - cut to hold at Stifel Nicolaus), Fraport [FRA.DE] -2.5% (analyst action - cut to neutral at Exane BNP), Smiths Group [SMIT.UK] +1.0% (earnings).

- Real Estate: Deutsche Wohnen [DWNI.DE] -2.5% (reports FY22 - beats estimates).

Speakers

- ECB's Nagel (Germany) stated that the ECB hiking sequence was not over if inflation moved as projected. need to go significantly into restrictive territory.

- BOE Gov Bailey made the media rounds after its recent rate decision and noted that interest rates would rise if firms hiked prices. Inflation was too high, must come down and believed it would do so in summer.

- Eurogroup Chief Donohoe (Ireland) stated that the budgetary policy in region had to stay coordinated.

- Philippines Central Bank (BSP) Gov Medalla stated that inflation likely to be under 4% by Oct.

- China said to set its 1st batch of 2023 rate earth mining quota at 120K metric tons.

Currencies/fixed income

- The USD snapped a multi-day losing streak against most G10 currencies aided by safe-haven flows. Concerns still linger around the banking system as the - Fed’s facility for foreign central banks got tapped for $60B in the week through March 22nd.

- GBP/USD was lower despite UK Retail Sales beating expectations and moving back to pre-covid levels. Market appear to be no longer fully pricing another BOE 25bps rate hike.

- The JPY currency also appeared to benefit from safe-haven flows. USD/JPY probed the 130 handle for 6-week highs. Dealer also noted market views of a less hawkish outlook for the Fed’s policy was also a factor.

Economic data

- (NL) Netherlands Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.6% v 0.6% prelim; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.0% prelim.

- (FI) Finland Feb PPI M/M: -0.6% v -2.1% prior; Y/Y: 9.2% v 10.7% prior.

- (UK) Feb Retail Sales (Ex-Auto/Fuel) M/M: 1.5% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -3.3% v -4.8%e.

- (UK) Feb Retail Sales (including auto/fuel) M/M: 1.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -3.5% v -4.7%e.

- (NO) Norway Feb Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 5.4% v 5.3% prior.

- (SE) Sweden Feb PPI M/M: -1.0% v -5.2% prior; Y/Y: 9.3% v 11.8% prior.

- (CN) Weekly Shanghai copper inventories (SHFE): 161.2K v 182.3K tons prior.

- (HU) Hungary Feb Unemployment Rate: 4.0% v 4.0%e.

- (ES) Spain Q4 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.2% v 0.2% prelim; Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.7% prelim.

- (ES) Spain Feb PPI M/M: +2.1% v -2.3% prior; Y/Y: 7.8% v 7.8% prior.

- (CZ) Czech Mar Business Confidence: 6.9 v 3.8 prior; Consumer Confidence: -21.5 v -21.0 prior; Composite Confidence (Consumer & Business): +1.2 v -1.2 prior.

- (TW) Taiwan Feb Unemployment Rate: 3.6% v 3.6%e.

- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e Mar 17th (RUB): 16.94T v 16.83T prior.

- (TR) Turkey Feb Foreign Tourist Arrivals Y/Y: 21.4% v 56.5% prior.

- (FR) France Mar Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 47.7 v 48.0e (2nd month of contraction); Services PMI: 55.5 v 52.5e; Composite PMI: 54.0 v 51.5e.

- (TW) Taiwan Feb M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.7% prior; M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 6.8% v 6.7% prior.

- (DE) Germany Mar Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 44.4 v 47.0e (9th straight contraction and lowest since May 2020); Services PMI: 53.9 v 51.0e; Composite PMI: 52.6 v 51.0e.

- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 47.1 v 49.0e (9th straight contraction); Services PMI: 55.6 v 52.5e; Composite PMI: 54.1 v 52.0e.

- (FR) France Q4 Final Wages Q/Q: 0.7% v 0.6%e.

- (UK) Mar Preliminary Manufacturing PMI: 40.8 v 49.7e (8th straight contraction); Services PMI: 52.8 v 53.0e; Composite PMI: 52.2 v 52.7e.

Fixed income issuance

- None seen.

Looking ahead

- 06:00 (EU) Daily Euribor Fixing.

- 06:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) announcements on upcoming issuance ((bills, Oats).

- 06:25 (EU) Daily ECB Liquidity Stats.

- 07:00 (UK) DMO to sell £2.5B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month bills (£0.5B, £1.0B and £1.0B respectively).

- 07:30 (IS) Iceland to sell Jan 2031 RIKB Bonds.

- 07:30 (IN) India Weekly Forex Reserve w/e Mar 17th: No est v $560.0B prior.

- 07:55 (US) Daily Libor Fixing.

- 08:00 (MX) Mexico Jan IGAE Economic Activity Index (Monthly GDP) M/M: 0.1%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 3.0%e v 2.6% prior.

- 08:00 (CL) Chile Feb PPI M/M: No est v 0.0% prior.

- 08:00 (BR) Brazil mid-Mar IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 M/M: 0.7%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 5.3%e v 5.6% prior.

- 08:00 (IN) India announces upcoming bill issuance (held on Wed).

- 08:30 (US) Feb Preliminary Durable Goods Orders: +0.2%e v -4.5% prior; Durables (Ex-Transportation): 0.2%e v 0.8% prior; Capital Goods Orders (non-defense/ex-aircraft): -0.2%e v +0.8% prior; Capital Goods Shipments (non-defense/ex-aircraft): 0.2%e v 1.1% prior.

- 08:30 (CA) Canada Jan Retail Sales M/M: 0.7%e v0.5% prior; Retail Sales (ex-auto) M/M: +0.6%e v -0.6% prior.

- 09:00 (UK) Daily Baltic Dry Bulk Index.

- 09:45 (US) Mar Preliminary S&P/Markit Manufacturing PMI: 47.0e v 47.3 prior; Services PMI: 50.3e v 50.6 prior; Composite PMI: 49.5e v 50.1 prior.

- 10:00 (BE) Belgium Mar Business Confidence: No est v -12.8 prior.

- 11:00 (US) Mar Kansas City Fed Services Activity: No est v 1 prior.

- 12:00 (UK) BOE’s Mann.

- 12:00 (EU) Potential sovereign ratings after European close (Fitch on Romania; S&P on Germany; Moody’s on Poland).

- 13:00 (US) Weekly Baker Hughes Rig Count.