Elliott Waves in a Nutshell
Forex Technical Analysis
Technical Analysis is the study of how prices in freely traded markets behaved through the recording, usually in graphic form, of price movements in financial instruments. It is also the art of recognizing repetitive shapes and patterns within those price structures represented by charts.
Below you have an example of the EUR/USD chart, showing also pivot points (support & resistance) and other technical indicators such as trend index, ob/os index, volatility index and forecast bias.
EUR/USD CHART
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Back in 1934, Ralph Nelson Elliott discovered that price action displayed on charts, instead of behaving in a somewhat chaotic manner, had actually an intrinsic narrative attached. Elliot saw the same patterns formed in repetitive cycles. These cycles were reflecting the predominant emotions of investors and traders in upward and downward swings. These movements were divided into what he called "waves".
Finding the right trading strategy is one thing that can determine your daily results as a trader no matter which market you’re in. Some people will spend a lifetime searching for or creating a viable strategy and then not stick with it. This is the reason why when you find something that has potential you should give it enough testing as possible; in both directions, backward and forward.
There are literally hundreds of technical indicators out there that a trader can use to help predict market direction. One of them is the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, which was developed in Japan during the previous century and which is gaining increasing popularity in the West because of its ability to identify trends. The Ichimoku is actually a combination of different indicators that together form a formidable asset in many traders’ arsenals.
The evolution of prices of an asset usually follows a temporal sequence. When we talk about timing, we are not necessarily referring to each of the cycles having a period of similar length, rather we only refer to the fact that there is a relationship between a set of data for a period of time. Once this period of time is finished, the behaviour of the following data will probably show a different distribution.
Premises of Technical Analysis
It's the study of how prices in freely traded markets behaved through the recording, usually in graphic form, of price movements in financial instruments. It is also the art of recognizing repetitive shapes and patterns within those price structures represented by charts. Because human nature behind price movements is constant, patterns repeat themselves, allowing the analyst to anticipate their future direction. Ultimately it's people that create price with their fear and greed, despite the reason for making a decision to buy or to sell.
There are three premises on which the technical approach is based:
- Market action discounts everything.
- Prices move in trends
- History repeats itself
Support and Resistance lines conform the most basic analytical tools and are commonly used as visual markers to trace the levels where the price found a temporary barrier. In other words, where price had trouble crossing. These levels can be found on any chart and any time frame either 1 minute or 1 month. Some of these lines remain valid for years.
When trading Moving Averages are a very good example of how to best get into a trade and how to attempt to predict what the chart will do next. We talk to Darren Sinden, the Market commentator for Admiral Markets, about this subject. As a man that has been in the stock markets for over 30 years, this is a subject that Darren is very well versed on. So do not miss this video.
In the first installment of this series, we introduced a random entry system that based its entries on a virtual coin flip (see “Guide to trading system development,” September 2012). The base system was backtested across four years of euro forex data to gather trade data for statistical analysis. As we saw, the base system was unprofitable. In mathematical terms, the base system has a negative expectancy of -0.81.
Let's say you took a position in the wrong direction. This happens to everybody. You see the market approaching your stop loss, and you keep a safer distance from it, moving further away from the market and deeper into your pocket. And then you do it again and again. This usually results in a safe loss of money. More money than you planned to risk on the trade.
The principle of intermarket analysis is based on the interplay between the four major asset classes: bonds, stocks, commodities, and currencies. By reading the “language of the markets”, the intermarket model provides a suitable analytical basis for effective trading. This article offers concrete applications for trading.