Market movers ahead
- We expect the focus to remain on oil price development and Russia over the comingweeks.
- In the US, we estimate PCE core inflation was 1.5% y/y in November: The labourmarket report for December is due to be released in the first week of January.
- In the euro area, we expect headline HICP for December to decline to negativeterritory at -0.1% y/y, while core inflation should remain unchanged at 0.7% y/y.
- The third and final round of the Greek presidential election is scheduled for 29December.
- Danish FX reserves may attract some attention due to the strong krone.
Global macro and market themes
- Risk markets recover following another correction.
- Stronger business cycle signals are set to underpin risk assets in H1 15.
- Looming Fed hikes put upward pressure on US yields and the USD.
Focus
- Flash Comment: Rouble liquidity squeeze set to weigh on GDP growth, 19 December.
- Flash Comment: Euro inflation set to decline to -0.5% and remain negative untilQ4 15, 19 December.
- Research Global: Oil price to bottom when non-OPEC output rise halts – déjà vuNo 2, 18 December.
- Flash Comment: FOMC meeting – It all depends on the data, 17 December
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USD/JPY extends recovery above 146.50 after BoJ Summary of Opinions
USD/JPY extends the latest recovery above 146.50 in Asian trading on Thursday. The Japanese Yen defends minor bids after the BoJ Summary of Opinions and amid a risk-off market mood, acting as a drag on the pair. Focus shifts to US employment data.
Gold price edges higher amid softer risk tone, eyes $2,400 on falling US bond yields
Gold price attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Thursday and for now, seems to have snapped a four-day losing streak. The market sentiment remains fragile amid concerns about an economic slowdown in China and a possible US recession.
Ethereum eyes a rally as on-chain data show bullish signs
Ethereum price retested its weekly support on Monday and, by Thursday, had risen by 4.50% to $2,454. Lookonchain data shows that Ethereum Spot ETFs saw inflows of 44,447 ETH, valued at $110.1 million, on Wednesday, while Santiment's data highlights increased activity in dormant wallets and recent capitulation events.
Blaring the bear market siren
The market may long for a peaceful passage, but we're gearing up for what looks to be more akin to a rollercoaster expedition. Prepare for a potentially "Turbulent Thursday" and brace for what might become a "Frantic Friday."