EUR/USD: mild bearish tone prevails

EUR/USD Current price: 1.1260

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The American dollar saw some demand this Thursday, advancing against most of its major rivals, albeit far from regaining the green weekly basis. The European session started with a tepid uptick in German Bund yields that traded up to 1.03% intraday, but for once, failed to boost the common currency. The EUR/USD pair was under mild pressure until the release of US data, which showed that Retail Sales in May surged above expected, up 1.2% from an expected recovery of 1.1%, whilst the  ex-autos figure came out also above expected, at 1.0% against 0.7%. At the same time, the country released its weekly unemployment claims that resulted slightly below expected for the week ending May 29, up to 279K. The EUR/USD fell down to 1.1181, but quickly reversed north, extending up to 1.1268 before stalling. German bunds turned lower, down to 0.9% weighing on the common currency, whilst the IMF said that its latest negotiations with Greece had failed, and no progress has been made towards a deal. 

The EUR/USD pair ended the day above the 1.1200 level, but seems biased lower in the short term, as the 1 hour chart shows that after bouncing from its 200 SMA earlier in the day, the price is now below a bearish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators head lower in negative territory. In the 4 hours chart, the price holds below a bullish 20 SMA, whilst the indicators present a neutral stance, lacking direction around their mid-lines. Renewed selling pressure below the 1.1210 level should expose the pair to additional declines intraday, with the next big support at 1.1160 for this Friday. 

Support levels: 1.1210 1.1160 1.1120

Resistance levels: 1.1280 1.1320 1.1360

EUR/JPY Current price: 138.88

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The EUR/JPY ended the day slightly lower, as both currencies were equally weak against the greenback on Thursday. There was no relevant data in Japan, although the country will release some manufacturing figures during the upcoming Asian session that may affect briefly JPY crosses. In the meantime, the technical picture presents a mild bearish tone, as the price is developing below its 100 and 200 SMAs, with the shortest around 139.20, acting as key intraday resistance, whilst the technical indicators present tepid bearish slopes below their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, the picture is not that clear, as the price remains well above strongly bullish moving averages, whilst the Momentum indicator has turned north, but still below its mid-line, whist the RSI indicator lacks directional strength around 44. A bearish acceleration below 138.45 is required to confirm additional declines, towards the 137.40 region, a strong static support area. 

Support levels: 138.45 137.90 137.40 

Resistance levels: 139.20 139.65 140.10

GBP/USD Current price: 1.5506

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The GBP/USD pair recovered the 1.5500 level, having bounced sharply from a daily low set at 1.5420 following the release of US data. The Pound has been looking more constructive against its rivals, ever since detaching from the EUR mid last week, with investors regaining confidence in the UK economic recovery. The GBP/USD pair has been slowly grinding higher in the American afternoon, having been as high as 1.5521. Technically, the 1 hour chart shows that the price is holding above a flat 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators are barely above their mid-lines, with a limited upward strength at the time being. In the 4 hours chart however, the 20 SMA heads higher now around 1.5420, the daily low, whilst the Momentum indicator has turned sharply higher in positive territory, and the RSI also aims north around 64, all of which supports additional gains, particularly on a break above 1.5553, the weekly high posted last Wednesday. 

Support levels: 1.5460 1.5420 1.5380 

Resistance levels: 1.5525 1.5555 1.5600

USD/JPY Current price: 123.53

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The Japanese yen stalled its recovery from the 13-year low posted last Friday against the greenback, as the USD/JPY pair ended the day up around 123.50. The pair posted a short-lived spike up to 124.13 following the release of US Retail Sales, but quickly turned lower, unable to sustain gains beyond the 124.00 level. The pair seems poised to extend its decline in the short term, as the 1 hour chart shows that the early advance stalled right below its 100 SMA that has crossed below the 200 SMA for the first time since May 20th, now providing an immediate intraday resistance around 124.10. In the same chart, the technical indicators have retreated from overbought levels and continue to head lower towards their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, the price is now hovering around its 100 SMA, whilst the technical indicators have corrected extreme oversold readings, but are now losing upward strength below their mid-lines, supporting the shorter term view, particularly on a downward extension below 123.30, the immediate support. 

Support levels: 123.30 122.90 122.55

Resistance levels: 124.10 124.45 124.90

AUD/USD Current price: 0.7747

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The Australian dollar gained against all of its rivals during the Asian session, following the release of a stellar job report for May, showing that the economy added 42,000 new jobs, whilst the unemployment rate fell down to 6.0%. The AUD/USD pair recovered up to 0.7792, where it established a fresh weekly high, after flirting with the 0.7700 earlier in the day. The 1 hour chart shows, however, little upward potential as the price is now aiming to extend above its 20 SMA, but the technical indicators remain below their mid-lines. In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture is biased higher, as the price held above a bullish 20 SMA, whilst the technical indicators bounced from their mid-lines and maintain their bullish slopes. Nevertheless, the 200 EMA continues to cap the upside around 0.7780, and it will take a clear break above this level to confirm an upward extension for the upcoming sessions. 

Support levels:  0.7720 0.7670 0.7630

Resistance levels: 0.7780 0.7830 0.7880