Forex Forecast Polls


The Forex Forecast is a currency sentiment tool that highlights our selected experts' near and medium term mood and calculates trends according to Friday's 15:00 GMT price. The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.



Weekly Forecast

EUR/USD: Focus shifts to US PCE inflation in Fed’s aftermath

EUR/USD: Focus shifts to US PCE inflation in Fed’s aftermath Premium

The EUR/USD pair flirted once again with the 1.1200 threshold this week but finally settled at around 1.1160, holding onto modest gains. The pair has been trying to conquer the mark since mid-August in anticipation of the Fed’s monetary policy announcement.

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GBP/USD: Pound Sterling thrives as BoE remains more cautious than Fed

GBP/USD: Pound Sterling thrives as BoE remains more cautious than Fed Premium

The Pound Sterling (GBP) extended its hold against the US Dollar (USD) after the previous week’s resurgence, as the GBP/USD pair tapped the highest level since March 2022 above 1.3300.

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Bitcoin: Fed-led rally could have legs towards $65,000

Bitcoin: Fed-led rally could have legs towards $65,000

Bitcoin is poised for a second consecutive week of gains, supported by the recent 50-basis-point cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve. Bitcoin broke above several key technical resistances this week, signaling a rally continuation.

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Week ahead – SNB to cut again, RBA to stand pat, PCE inflation also on tap

Week ahead – SNB to cut again, RBA to stand pat, PCE inflation also on tap

SNB is expected to ease for third time; might cut by 50bps. RBA to hold rates but could turn less hawkish as CPI falls. After inaugural Fed cut, attention turns to PCE inflation. September flash PMIs to do the rounds; spotlight on euro area.

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AUD/USD: Interim top confirmed, 0.7000 at risk

AUD/USD: Interim top confirmed, 0.7000 at risk Premium

The AUD/USD pair kept falling in the last few days, reaching a fresh multi-week low of 0.7263 on Friday, to close the trading week a handful of pips above it. 

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Gold: Large Fed rate cut paves way for new record-high

Gold: Large Fed rate cut paves way for new record-high Premium

Gold climbed to a new record high above $2,600 this week. The near-term technical outlook suggests that XAU/USD is close to turning overbought. Fedspeak and PCE inflation data could influence Gold’s valuation next week.

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WHAT IS THE FOREX FORECAST POLL?

The Forex Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near- and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts.

  • Unique sentiment indicator with a 5-year history
  • For 10 currency pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, GBPJPY, EURJPY, EURGBP)
  • Survey conducted every Friday and published at 15:00 GMT
  • Serves all time horizons: 1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter - includes an average price for each time horizon
  • Followed by traders, market commentators as well as academics

The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.

 

HOW TO READ THE GRAPHS?

Besides the table with all participants’ individual prediction, a graphic representation aggregates and visualizes the data: the Bullish/Bearish/Sideways line shows the percentage of our contributors on each of these outlook biases.

This graph is available for each time horizon (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter). We also indicate the average price forecast as well as the average bias.

WHY SHOULD I USE IT?

Our unique Forex Forecast poll offers you:

  • A sentiment indicator which delivers actionable price levels, not merely “mood” or “positioning” indications. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts - if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market - or if there are divergences among them. When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is deviation between actual market rate and value reflected in forecasted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market.
  • No lag in the data: Contrary to other indicators, there is no delay.
  • Significant sentiment data, based on a representative sample of 25 to 50 leading trading advisors for 5 years. Do not follow a single guru but rather a balanced group of well chosen experts. The Forex Forecast Poll offers a condensed version of several expert's opinions. Only outlooks are considered that have been committed to publication and therefore have an influence on the market.
  • A tool for Contrarian thinking: People instinctively follow the impulses of the crowd. Sentiment indicators, in turn, lead to “contrarian” thinking. You can read sentiment extremes and avoid being one of the herd. Contrast own opinions and price outlook with a group of leading trading advisors and money managers.
  • A tool to build strategies upon prediction data: Find patterns data for instance if a trend is gaining or losing energy.
EUR/USD Forecast GBP/USD Forecast USD/JPY Forecast AUD/USD Forecast
USD/CAD Forecast GBP/JPY Forecast NZD/USD Forecast EUR/JPY Forecast