WTI Price Forecast: Hangs near two-month low; vulnerable below $85.00/100-day SMA

WTI bears turn cautious on Friday amid mixed signals over a potential US-Iran peace deal.
Iran countered Trump's claim that a peace deal could be signed as soon as this weekend.
The technical setup favors bearish traders and backs the case for further near-term slide.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) – the benchmark US Crude Oil price – struggles to attract any meaningful buyers and languishes near its lowest level since April 17, touched during the Asian session earlier this Friday. The commodity currently trades around the $84.65-$84.70 region, down 0.50% for the day, though it lacks bearish conviction amid the uncertainty over the US-Iran peace deal.

US President Donald Trump said that a deal had been reached with Iran and the final document could be signed soon, perhaps even over the weekend, which triggered a massive sell off around Crude Oil prices on Thursday. However, Iran countered that it had not reached a final decision on an agreement. Adding to this, Iranian forces blocked a tanker from transiting through the strategic Strait of Hormuz without coordination, keeping geopolitical risk premiums in play and acting as a tailwind for Crude Oil prices.

From a technical perspective, the near-term bias stays bearish as the commodity now seems to have found acceptance below the $85.00 horizontal support, which coincided with the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 40, hinting at persistent weak momentum, while the negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading reinforces a downside-skewed tone. This keeps the recent pullback intact following the failure to sustain above the $90.00 mark.

.On the topside, the 100-day SMA, levels just above the $85.00 mark, is the first resistance that bulls would need to reclaim to ease immediate selling pressure and open the door toward the $90 region. Until that barrier is cleared on a daily closing basis, rallies are likely to be viewed as corrective within a broader consolidation, leaving WTI vulnerable to further retracements toward recent lows in the sub-$80.00 levels.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

WTI daily chart

WTI Oil FAQs

What is WTI Oil?

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

What factors drive the price of WTI Oil?

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil?

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

Author

Haresh Menghani

FXStreet

Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.

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