|

GBP/USD hits four-year high as tariff escalation crushes US Dollar

  • GBP/USD reaches a four-year high of 1.3791 amid Trump's threat to raise tariffs on South Korea, deepening Dollar weakness.
  • DXY slides toward multi-year lows amid Yen intervention speculation and fading US confidence data.
  • Traders brace for the FOMC decision and Powell’s guidance as the next major catalyst.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) soars during Tuesday’s North American session as the US Dollar (USD) continues to weaken due to trade tariff escalation ahead of the first Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting of 2026. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades at 1.3776, up 0.76%, after hitting a four-year high of 1.3791.

Sterling surges as renewed trade tensions and intervention rumors reignite the 'Sell America' trade

Sentiment remains upbeat, making the US Dollar less appealing as the 'Sell America' trade reignites once again. US President Donald Trump announced threatened to increase tariffs to South Korea from 15% to 25% due to South Korea’s taking longer than expected to approve the trade deal.

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, dives 0.77%, about to challenge last year’s low of 96.21. Once cleared, the DXY could plunge and test four-year lows reached on January 14, 2022, at 94.63.

The US Dollar’s plunge is sparked by threats of intervention to propel the Japanese Yen. Last Friday, Bloomberg reported that the New York Fed Regional Bank asked for exchange rates on the Yen with some financial institutions.

US economic data revealed the ADP Employment Change 4-week average, which dipped from 8K a week ago to 7.75K. Recently, the US Conference Board Consumer Confidence fell short of estimates of 90.9, coming in at 84.5 as views of current business conditions worsened in January, while views of the labor market were also weaker.

Across the pond, the British Retail Consortium on Tuesday revealed that prices at major UK retailers increased at the fastest pace in nearly two years in January. In the meantime, money markets expect the Bank of England to hold rates unchanged, and so far, had priced in 34 basis points of easing towards the end of the year.

Domestic political issues in the UK emerged as the Labor Party seems to be blocking Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham from returning to parliament. He is seen as a potential challenge for the current Prime Minister Keir Starmer, whose leadership has been called into question.

Looking ahead, traders' focus shifts to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting decision, followed by the Fed Chair Jerome Powell press conference.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Once GBP/USD breached 1.3700, it seems that the pair could consolidate within the 1.3750-1.3800 milestone ahead of the Fed’s meeting. Bulls are gathering momentum, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which turned overbought, but due to the parabolic upward move, it remains shy of testing the most extreme reading at 80.

If GBP/USD clears 1.3800, the next resistance would be July 30, 2021, swing high at 1.3983, ahead of 1.4000.

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Pound Sterling Price This Month

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this month. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHF
USD-1.71%-2.04%-2.05%-0.62%-4.29%-3.69%-3.09%
EUR1.71%-0.38%-0.31%1.18%-2.26%-1.94%-1.34%
GBP2.04%0.38%0.08%1.57%-1.88%-1.56%-0.96%
JPY2.05%0.31%-0.08%1.41%-2.15%-2.10%-0.92%
CAD0.62%-1.18%-1.57%-1.41%-3.51%-3.46%-2.49%
AUD4.29%2.26%1.88%2.15%3.51%0.33%0.94%
NZD3.69%1.94%1.56%2.10%3.46%-0.33%0.61%
CHF3.09%1.34%0.96%0.92%2.49%-0.94%-0.61%

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

Author

Christian Borjon Valencia

Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.

More from Christian Borjon Valencia
Share:

Editor's Picks

GBP/USD holds range below 1.3650 amid Iran risks

GBP/USD extends its sideways consolidative price move for the second straight day and trades below 1.3650 in Tuesday's European session. The US Dollar is looking to build on its modest recovery amid US sanctions on Iran, acting as a headwind for the pair. The lack of follow-through selling warrants some caution for bearish traders.

EUR/USD struggles near 1.1650 as USD recovers amid Mideast woes

EUR/USD is struggling to gain traction, while trading near 1.1650 in European trading on Tuesday. The pair fails to find support amid a modest US Dollar recovery as rising oil prices, elevated bond yields, and escalating Middle East tensions fuel risk-off trades. Germany IFO Survey is next in focus.

Gold remains depressed below $4,650 on firmer USD, Fed risks, and Middle East tensions

Gold remains on the back foot below $4,650 through the first half of the European session. However, the lack of follow-through selling warrants caution before positioning for an extension of the intraday retracement slide from the $4,700 neighborhood, or the highest level since May 14, touched earlier this Tuesday. The US Dollar is seen building on its recovery from a three-month low as inflation risks stemming from volatile energy prices keep bets for at least one interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve on the table.

Bitcoin tops $80,000 as US Treasury fights high yields – AERO, VIRTUAL rally

Bitcoin extends gains above $80,000 as broader market risk-on sentiment persists. The scarce asset could extend its rally as the US Treasury combats high yields in the long-dated bond market, with further interventions on the horizon. Aerodrome Finance (AERO) and Virtuals Protocol (VIRTUAL) emerged as top performers over the last 24 hours.

The forex market is switching to a ‘debasement trade’
The US dollar has stabilised near three-month lows thanks to a rapid recovery in Treasury bond yields. Yields on 30-year bonds are returning to the levels seen following the Treasury’s announcement that it was increasing the minimum purchase volume to $4 billion. The greenback got support from falling stock indices, the continued rally in Brent crude, and positive signals from the US economy.
$20 billion offered, $2 billion taken: Why Treasury doubled its buyback cap

The US Treasury moved off its own calendar on Wednesday, and that is the part worth sitting with. At 12:32 GMT, the department said it would at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors, lifting the maximum from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and running to November 4.