Trump makes clear message to Fed with Lisa Cook firing attempt

Matthew Ryan, CFA Ebury

While last week's data generally surprised to the upside and painted a picture of a resilient economy, all bets are off before the critical employment report this Friday.

A weakening labour market is the only rationale behind the Federal Reserve’s dovish turn and telegraphing of a September cut, and should data show resilience, such a move may read like the central bank is caving in to relentless pressure from Trump to cut rates.

Meanwhile, Lisa Cook's attempted firing by Trump is likely to be a long legal process. While the short term impact is limited, the message being sent to other Fed governors is unmistakable.

Long term rates are the key for Trump, as they drive mortgage rates and hence the housing markets, and these remain stubbornly high even as expectations for rate cuts grow.

Author

Matthew Ryan, CFA

Ebury

Matthew is Global Head of Market Strategy at FX specialist Ebury, where he has been part of the strategy team since 2014. He provides fundamental FX analysis for a wide range of G10 and emerging market currencies.

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