Preparing for THE Bottom: Part 3 - Gold to Silver Ratio
Gold Forecast and News
Gold under selling pressure near $2,330
Gold prices remain on the back foot amidst some recovery in the Greenback and ahead of the release of US PPI and CPI later in the week, prompting XAU/USD to retest the $2,330 region per troy ounce.
Latest XAU/USD News
XAU/USD Technical Overview
The XAU/USD pair keeps trading around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April/May rally at $2,326.50, with the failed attempt to regain the upside taking its toll on buyers. The daily chart shows technical indicators turned south, approaching their midlines from above, which is not enough to confirm a bearish extension but reflects decreasing buying interest. At the same time, the pair is hovering around a bearish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) while the longer moving averages maintain their bullish slopes far below the current level.
For the near term, the 4-hour offers an increasingly bearish potential. Technical indicators retreated sharply from overbought readings on Friday and approached their midlines with firmly bearish slopes. At the same time, XAU/USD is trading below a mildly bullish 20 SMA, while a bearish 100 SMA converges with the aforementioned Fibonacci level, reinforcing its relevance. A break below the latter should open the door for a test of the $2,300 price zone.
Support levels: 2,326.50 2,310.40 2,298.70
Resistance levels: 2,340.15 2,356.90 2,367.10
Fundamental Overview
Spot Gold traded with a soft tone on Monday, now hovering around $2,335 a troy ounce. XAU/USD hit an intraday high of $2,364.38 before changing course, despite broad US Dollar’s weakness. The American currency shed ground against most major rivals, only firmer vs safe-haven rivals on the back of generally hawkish statements from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and mounting speculation the central bank won’t cut rates in the near future.
On the one hand, the New York Federal Reserve released its monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations on Monday, which sowed one year ahead, inflation expectations rose to 3.3% vs 3% in March. The report came after the University of Michigan also reported an increase in Consumer Inflation Expectations in May last Friday. On the other hand, Federal Reserve Vice-Chairman Philip Jefferson hit the wires with some hawkish comments, saying inflation is a source of concern for the Fed and that it remains appropriate to maintain the policy rate in restrictive territory.
Other than that, market participants have little news to work with, moreover considering the upcoming release of the United States (US) April Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday. The CPI is foreseen at 3.4% YoY, slightly below the 3.5% posted in March.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: Bulls return and aim for record highs Premium
Spot Gold price (XAU/USD) heads into the weekly close posting solid gains and changing hands at around $2,360 a troy ounce. XAU/USD struggled for direction, spending most of the week hovering between $2,300 and $2,330.
Metals Big Picture
METALS BULLISH THEMES
METALS BEARISH THEMES
Latest XAU/USD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD looks bid around 1.0800 as US CPI looms closer
EUR/USD rapidly left behind. Friday’s decline and managed to meet fresh buying interest, reclaiming the area beyond the 1.0800 barrier in response to the resurgence of the downward pressure in the Greenback.
GBP/USD maintains its bid bias around 1.2560
GBP/USD keeps its auspicious start to the week well and sound and navigates the upper end of the range near 1.2560 on the back of the resumption of the selling bias in the US Dollar.
USD/JPY finds highest bids since suspected ‘Yentervention’ declines, breaks above 156.00
USD/JPY broke above the 156.00 handle on Monday as markets continue to chew through Japanese Yen (JPY) gains following a pair of suspected “Yenterventions” from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) at the end of April and beginning of May. The BoJ has remained tight-lipped on the matter, refusing to officially confirm or deny direct intervention in global markets on behalf of the Yen.
Gold under selling pressure near $2,330
Gold prices remain on the back foot amidst some recovery in the Greenback and ahead of the release of US PPI and CPI later in the week, prompting XAU/USD to retest the $2,330 region per troy ounce.
Oil prints small uptick while Greenback eases
Oil trades around $78.00 after a failed attempt to snap above $80.00 on Friday. More criticism emerges globally towards Israel and its offensive into Gaza. The US Dollar Index steadies around 105.30 ahead of US CPI data later this week.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
XAU/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could XAU/USD move this year? Our experts make a XAU/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the gold-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 XAU/USD forecast!
2024 FORECAST FOR XAU/USD
In the XAU/USD Price Forecast 2024, our analyst, Eren Sengezer, notes that Gold carries its bullish potential into early 2024 on prospects of a looser Fed policy, lower US bond yields and a weaker USD. A downturn in the global economy, however, could weigh on demand and limit the precious metal’s gains. A lack of progress in the Fed’s efforts to lower inflation, on the other hand, could cause XAU/USD to turn south. Read more details about the forecast.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR XAU/USD
The Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 and the Israel-Hamas dispute in 2023 underscored Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset in uncertain times. Further escalation in the Middle East or a resurgence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict may push Gold prices higher.
A potential re-election of former President Donald Trump could involve a 10% tariff on foreign goods and a four-year plan to reduce essential Chinese imports. This could complicate the Federal Reserve's task of lowering inflation to the 2% target and strain relations with China, negatively affecting Gold's demand outlook.
Gold/Silver Ratio
This ratio normally goes well during risk aversion, while it falls off during times of risk-on. If this ratio is about to turn, or at key levels where it could turn, the
trader looks to the Equity indices if the risk has indeed been on and if it is about to turn as well.
When the ratio is rising, it means gold is outperforming silver, and when the line is falling, the first term is doing worse, i.e., silver is doing better. In other words, when the ratio is high, the general consensus is that silver is favored. Conversely, a low ratio tends to favor gold and may be a signal it’s a good time to buy the yellow metal. Despite the gold-to-silver ratio fluctuating so wildly, another way of using it is to switch holdings between silver and gold when the ratio swings to historically determined "extremes."
Read more about gold versus silver:
About Gold
XAU/USD, GOLD
In the Forex market, gold is a form of currency. The particularity of gold is that it can only be traded against United States dollars (USD). The internationally accepted code for gold is XAU. It is known to be a “safe-haven” asset, it is expected to increase its value in times of volatility and economic uncertainty.
The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollar (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Gold Ounce (the base currency). United States is the country that holds the biggest resources of gold in the world.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- WGC (World Gold Council), the market development organisation for the gold industry whose aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for that commodity.
- LBMA, London Bullion Market Association, whose members conduct trading in this wholesale over-the-counter market for the trading of gold and silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most of the members are major international banks or bullion dealers and refiners.
- COMEX (Commodity Exchange Inc.), the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and became the division responsible for metals trading.
- Zurich Gold Pool founded in 1968 by the largest banks in Switzerland after the collapse of the London Gold Pool.
- CGSE, the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society (see above the importance of China in terms of gold reserve).
PEOPLE THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- David Harquail, the World Gold Council’s Chairman
- Steven Mnuchin, US Treasury Secretary
- Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China and General Secretary of the Communist Party of China
ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
The main indicators that traders should watch to understand where gold is standing are:
- Demand vs Supply for the commodity
- Struggling markets or context of currency devaluation: gold is known to be a haven for investors in times of economic uncertainty or when any country sees its currency devaluing
- Practical applications: technology invents, jewellery use, etc
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- Currencies: USD and EUR. Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: Silver, the other most important precious metal commodity together with Gold.
- Bonds: Bund (the German word for "bond", a debt security issued by Germany's federal government) and T-Note (Treasury Note, a marketable U.S. government debt security)
- Indices: Hui (AMEX Gold BUGS), XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Sector Index) and GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index) The most important stock exchanges are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the Chicago Board of Trade, the Euronext/LIFFE, the London Bullion Market, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the Bolsa der Mercadorias e Futuros and the Korea Futures Exchange.
