When are the US durable goods orders data and how could they affect EUR/USD?
|US durable goods orders overview
Wednesday's US economic docket highlights the release of durable goods orders data for the month of January. The US Census Bureau is scheduled to release the monthly report at 1:30 GMT and consensus estimates point to a solid m/m fall of 0.5% as against a solid growth of 1.2% in the previous month.
Excluding transportation items, core durable goods orders - which tend to have a broader impact than the volatile headline figures, are anticipated to match December's subdued growth and come in to show a modest 0.1% m/m rise during the reported month.
The Scotiabank analysts offered a detailed preview of the upcoming January US durable goods and said: “Orders excluding defense and aircraft have fallen by about 1% in each of the prior two months and four out of the past five months. This is a common challenge across much of the world economy as capital spending is suffering in part from the uncertainty imposed by the Trump administration's protectionist trade policies but also by uncertainty toward the underlying health of the global economy.”
Deviation impact on EUR/USD
Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed, the reaction is likely to be in the range of 21-pips during the first 15-minutes and could extend up to 42-44 pips in the following 4-hours in case of deviations from -0.42 to +1.06 in the headline figures.
EUR/USD important levels to watch
Yohay Elam, FXStreet's own Analyst offers some important technical levels ahead of the important release: “Resistance awaits at 1.1310 which was the peak on Tuesday and also a swing low in early March. 1.1325 capped the pair last week and 1.1350 is where the 200 SMA meets the chart. 1.1410 and 1.1420 are next.”
“Support is at 1.1275 which was the daily low and also a swing low in mid-February. 1.1250 was a separator of range in recent days. It is followed by 1.1230 was a swing low in February and 1.1220 was a low point early in the week,” he added further.
Key Notes
• US Durable Goods Preview: Business spending to rise
• EUR/USD Forecast: Extended uptrend as Brexit bites the bears
• EUR/USD remains bid and flirts with 1.1300, looks to Brexit, data
About US durable goods orders
The Durable Goods Orders, released by the US Census Bureau, measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. The final figure shows the state of US production activity. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD.
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