USD/CAD Forecast and News
Canadian Dollar looks to pare back recent losses on data-light Wednesday
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) rebounded across broader markets on Wednesday, regaining ground lost in the previous sessions. Markets remain thin as traders await meaningful data and watch for talking points from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials.
Latest Canadian Dollar News
USD/CAD Technical Overview
Fundamental Overview
USD/CAD Big Picture
USD/CAD Bullish Themes
USD/CAD Bearish Themes
Latest CAD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD stuck near midrange ahead of thin Thursday session
EUR/USD is reverting to the near-term mean, stuck near 1.0750 and stuck firmly in the week’s opening trading range. Markets will be on the lookout for speeches from ECB policymakers, but officials are broadly expected to avoid rocking the boat amidst holiday-constrained market flows.
GBP/USD holds below 1.2500 ahead of BoE rate decision
GBP/USD remains on the defensive around 1.2495 on Thursday during the early Asian session. Greenback edges higher for the third consecutive day, which weighs on the major pair. Traders turn to cautious mode ahead of the Bank of England interest rate decision later in the day, with no change in rate expected.
USD/JPY surges to near 155.50 as Fed expects to prolong policy rates
USD/JPY extends winning streak amid hawkish sentiment surrounding the Fed’s stance on monetary policy. Fed's Kashkari anticipates the prolonging of elevated rates and suggests that further rate hikes are not entirely ruled out. The Japanese Yen depreciated despite the potential for intervention by Japanese authorities.
Gold price drops amid higher US yields awaiting next week's US inflation
Gold remained at familiar levels on Wednesday, trading near $2,312 amid rising US Treasury yields and a strong US dollar. Traders await unemployment claims on Thursday, followed by Friday's University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.
Oil erases intraday loss after draw down in Crude inventories
Oil nearly erases all intraday losses after EIA release. WTI Oil hangs around $78 after a dive to $76.76 earlier. The US Dollar Index ticks up with help from the Japanese Yen and market uncertainty.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
USD/CAD YEARLY FORECAST
How could USD/CAD move this year? Our experts make a USD/CAD update forecasting the possible moves of the Canadian dollar (CAD) - US dollar (USD) pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 USD/CAD forecast!
USD/CAD FORECAST 2024
2023’s comparatively quiet year in the charts, spurred by broad-market flows into and out of the US Dollar as investors grappled with Fed policy and BoC rate policy stuck in lockstep with Fed rate guidance, is set to give way to an interesting year as central bank policies see increasing risk of divergence with the Canadian economy accelerating into a recession in the first half of 2024. Read more details about the forecast.
2024 OUTLOOK FOR USD/CAD
The USD/CAD will see diverging central bank policy as a key driver through 2024, and the correlation between the Canadian Dollar and Crude Oil is likely to hold firm through the upcoming trading year. Despite musings in recent years about a shakeout in the Loonie-Crude connection, 2023 saw USD/CAD and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil moving around the charts in lockstep.
The Canadian economy is expected to run into headwinds through the second half of 2024, coinciding with a global growth slowdown that could hamper Crude Oil prices next year as fossil fuels demand flounders in low-growth or recessionary environments.
ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE AND ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE USD/CAD
In Canada, the organizations and people that affect the most the moves of the pair are:
- Bank of Canada (BoC, Canada’s Central bank) that issues statements and decides on the interest rates of the country. Its president is Tiff Macklem.
- Canadian Government and its Department of Finance that implement policies that affect the economy of the country.
- CAPP (Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers): Canada being a prominent oil and natural gas producer, the trade organization of that industry is very important.
In the USA, we have:
- The US Government: events as administration statements, new laws and regulations or fiscal policy can increase or decrease the value of the US Dollar and the currencies traded against it, in this case, the Canadian Dollar.
- Fed, the Federal Reserve of the United States whose president is Jerome Powell. The Fed controls the monetary policy, through active duties such as managing interest rates, setting the reserve requirement, and acting as a lender of last resort to the banking sector during times of bank insolvency or financial crisis.
In terms of economic data, we should highlight the Trade Account Balance, a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the USD/CAD. If a steady demand in exchange for CAD exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the CAD.
Inflation is another economic value that is important for this pair. It is measured among others by the CPI (Core Price Index) and the PPI (Production Price Index). They are key indicators to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends.
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
Tiff Macklem
Tiff Macklem was born in Montréal, Quebec, in 1961. He was appointed Governor of the Bank of Canada, effective 3 June 2020, for a seven-year term. He is the tenth governor of the Bank of Canada. As Governor, he is also Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). He currently chairs both, the BIS Audit Committee and the Consultative Council for the Americas.
Macklem on BOC'S Profile and Wikipedia
BOC NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About USD/CAD
THE 'LOONIE'
THE IMPORTANCE OF OIL FOR THE LOONIE
Canada is commonly known as a resource based economy being a large producer and supplier of oil. The leading export market for Canada is by far the United States making its currency particularly sensitive to US consumption data and economical health.
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE USD/CAD THE MOST
- Commodities: as we already explained, oil is number one, but gold and natural gas are also to be taken into account by the traders.
- Currencies: JPY and EUR. Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, an NZD/USD.
- Bonds: CSB (Canada Savings Bonds), CPB (Canada Premium Bond).
- Indices: S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index (the headline index for the Canadian equity market), S&P/TSX Global Gold Index (index of global gold securities) and S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index (benchmarks for related derivative products of Canadian economic sectors).