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The Fed has gone through a noticeable policy swing in recent months - from initiating a rate cut, to signaling a potential pause, and now shifting once again toward another cut in December. This has created understandable confusion among traders and investors trying to interpret the Fed’s reaction function.
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In-Depth Analysis
In the major advanced economies, public deficits remain high, particularly in the United States, the United Kingdom and France, where fiscal consolidation is expected to continue.
The silver market is on track for its fifth straight structural market deficit. The recent silver squeeze that pushed the silver price to a record high was partly due to a displacement of metal.
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Cryptocurrencies
Ripple is trading under pressure at the time of writing on Thursday, after bulls failed to break the short-term resistance at $2.22. The reversal may extend toward Monday’s low of $1.98, especially if risk-off sentiment persists in the broader cryptocurrency market.
Aster is consolidating above $1.05 at the time of writing on Thursday, reflecting lethargic sentiment in the broader cryptocurrency market. The token native to the perpetual Decentralised Exchange had recovered from Monday's low of $0.88 but stalled around $1.08 on Wednesday.
Hyperliquid struggles to surface above $35 as a local resistance trendline caps the two-day recovery run. Hyperliquid Strategies Inc. (PURR) transfered 12 million HYPE tokens to Hypercore and staked 425,000 tokens, which reflects confidence.
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Stocks
The index bottomed at 23854 on Friday, November 21, within the ideal (minor) W-4 target zone, and closed that week at 24239. It is now trading around 25575. Therefore, the index remained above 24000 for the week, supporting our preferred scenario illustrated in Figure 1 below.
Weekly Forecast
The EUR/USD pair held within familiar levels in the last trading day of November, settling below the 1.1600 mark. The pair had made little progress throughout the month and even clinched a fresh three-month low of 1.1468, despite broad US Dollar (USD) weakness.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) staged an impressive recovery against the US Dollar (USD), as GBP/USD clinched fresh monthly highs above the 1.3250 psychological level.
Bitcoin (BTC) hovers around $91,000 at the time of writing on Friday, extending its recovery by 5% so far this week. On the institutional front, a modest outflow from US-listed spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) marks a slowdown from previous weeks and signals a reduction in selling pressure, further supporting BTC’s recovery.
This week, the US Dollar has faced significant challenges. It spent every session on the defensive, pulling the Dollar Index (DXY) back from last week’s gains and putting the focus firmly on the downside for now.
