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2026 may be less about a neat “base case” and more about a regime shift—the market can reprice what matters most (growth, inflation, fiscal, geopolitics, concentration). The biggest trap is false comfort: the same trades can look defensive… right up until they become crowded.
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In-Depth Analysis
The global and European economies have been resilient in recent years even accounting for the modest global slowdown of 2025. But risks for the recovery are rising, underscoring a negative medium-run global macro and credit outlook.
The latest data in China has changed little to the overall picture of a two-speed economy with domestic demand looking weak while exports and tech continue to power ahead.
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Cryptocurrencies
Ripple (XRP) is stable above support at $1.90 at the time of writing on Monday, after several attempts to break above the $2.00 hurdle failed to materialize last week. Meanwhile, institutional interest in the cross-border remittance token has remained steady.
Cardano ticks higher after a bearish weekend, struggling to extend an upcycle within a descending wedge pattern. On-chain data shows an increase in trading volume and user activity after the Midnight side chain token launch.
Bitcoin is trending up toward the pivotal $90,000 level at the time of writing on Monday, which marks four consecutive days of gains. Altcoins, including Ethereum and Ripple, are also rebounding above key short-term support levels.
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Stocks
S&P 500 held Thursday‘s regular session lows, and just rose after Friday‘s opening bell. Those intraday retreats were good enough just for quick intraday gains, particularly as it became apparent that Nasdaq leadership is starting to wane – that‘s a sign of broadening breadth as S&P 500 still kept making higher highs intraday.
Weekly Forecast
The US Dollar Index, which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is extending gains for the third successive session and trading around 98.60 during the European hours on Friday. Traders will likely observe the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for December later in the day.
Having wrapped up 2025 on a positive note, the Pound Sterling (GBP) eyes another meaningful and upbeat year against the US Dollar (USD) at the start of 2026.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is not having the best year-end. A combination of weak economic growth, concerns about government spending, and uncertainty about the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy path has created a perfect storm for the JPY, which has been one of the worst-performing major currencies in the last quarter of 2025.
Bitcoin (BTC) is wrapping up 2025 as one of its most eventful years, defined by unprecedented institutional participation, major regulatory developments, and extreme price volatility.
