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Over the past two Tokyo sessions, this has not been a rate story. Not even close. Interest rate differentials have been spectators, not drivers. What has moved USD/JPY in local hours has been flow and flow alone.
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In-Depth Analysis
A few months ago I started to notice something odd. The price of natural hazelnuts had more or less doubled. Shortly after, they became surprisingly hard to find, at least in supermarkets where they had always been readily available.
Every bull market creates its own regrets. Missed entries. Delayed conviction. Capital deployed just late enough to feel the move, but not profit from it.
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Cryptocurrencies
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) trades in the red below $522 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after multiple rejections at key resistance. BCH’s derivatives and on-chain indicators point to growing bearish sentiment and raise the risk of a dead-cat bounce toward lower support levels.
Pump.fun (PUMP) edges lower by roughly 2% at the time of writing on Tuesday, extending Monday’s 4% drop. The launchpad token remains at downside risk as 10 billion PUMP will unlock on Tuesday, while retail interest is declining.
Hyperliquid (HYPE) price is trading sideways at the time of writing on Tuesday, reflecting market indecision as traders await a clearer directional signal. The derivatives data further supports this mixed sentiment, with rising short bets while funding rates remain positive.
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Stocks
The cycle from the January 21, 2026 low in Apple (AAPL) is unfolding as a five‑wave Elliott Wave impulse. From that low, wave 1 advanced to $268.34, followed by a corrective pullback in wave 2 that terminated at $252.12. The stock then resumed its upward trajectory in wave 3.
Weekly Forecast
The EUR/USD pair lost additional ground in the first week of February, settling at around 1.1820. The reversal lost momentum after the pair peaked at 1.2082 in January, its highest since mid-2021.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) changed course against the US Dollar (USD), with GBP/USD giving up nearly 200 pips in a dramatic correction.
Bitcoin (BTC) price recovers slightly, trading at $65,000 at the time of writing on Friday, after reaching a low of $60,000 during the early Asian trading session. The Crypto King remained under pressure so far this week, posting three consecutive weeks of losses exceeding 30%.
Finally, the recent steep leg lower in the US Dollar (USD) has found some respite. Indeed, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has managed to regain some composure and put further distance from the yearly lows near 95.50 recorded in late January, reaching the boundaries of the 98.00 yardstick toward the end of the week.




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