- AUD/USD falls to 0.6511 after US jobs report beats forecasts, reducing prospects for near-term Fed rate cut.
- US sees 353K job additions in January with Hourly Earnings rise, underscoring a strong labor market, uplifting USD.
- RBA's upcoming decision and future economic data releases to play key roles in determining AUD's trajectory.
The AUD/USD plunged more than 0.90% on Friday after a robust US Nonfarm Payrolls report triggered a jump in US Treasury yields as investors disregarded a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in March. At the time of writing, the pair traders at 0.6511
Aussie Dolla falls on January’s NFP, traders eye RBA’s meeting
The latest US Nonfarm Payrolls report exceeded expectations, with the economy adding 353K jobs, far surpassing the forecasted 180K and outdoing the revised December figures of 333K, initially reported as 216K. Unemployment Rate remained steady at 3.7%, unchanged from the previous month. Furthermore, Average Hourly Earnings (AHE) saw an increase, with the monthly AHE rising to 0.6% from 0.4% and the year-over-year rate climbing to 4.5% from 4.4%.
Following this report, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose from around 3.90% to 4.06%, gaining 15 basis points (bps). Additionally, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of major currencies, rose to a seven-week high at 104.04 after the data.
Further data was released, with Factory Orders for newly manufactured goods climbed modestly, while Consumer Sentiment by the University of Michigan improved to 79.1 in January.
Next week, the Aussie’s economic calendar will feature the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy decision, followed by RBA’s Governor Michele Bullock's press conference. After that, the Aussie Dollar could gauge direction from the release of the AI Group Industry Index, Westpac Consumer Confidence, and NAB Business Confidence data.
AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook
After diving below the 200-day moving average (DMA), the AUD/USD has shifted neutral to downward biased, piercing on its way south of the 100-DMA at 0.6527. A daily close below those levels will expose the 0.6500 figure, followed by the psychological 0.6500 mark. On the other hand, if Aussie buyers regain the 100-DMA, the next resistance would be 0.6550, before the 200-DMA.
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