WTI holds below $79.50 amid demand concerns
|- WTI trades in negative territory for the fourth consecutive day $78.00 on Tuesday.
- Oil demand concerns continue to weigh on the WTI price.
- Morgan Stanley expects oil prices to drop to the mid-$70s in 2025 amid a surplus.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $79.00 on Tuesday. WTI price edges lower to near lowest level in over a month amid oil demand concerns and rising stockpiles.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold a policy meeting on July 30-31, with no change in rate expected. However, market players see signs of a possible cut in September. The release of key US economic data this week could offer some hints about the interest rate path in the US. The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data for June, will be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. "If we get an indication of a rate cut, the Fed could be positive for risk-sensitive assets like oil," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
On the other hand, demand concerns continue to undermine the WTI price. On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) surprised markets by cutting the one-year and five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR), benchmarks for the loans banks make to their customers, by 10 basis points (bps) to boost the economy. However, the Chinese interest rate cut failed to support WTI prices. "The Chinese interest rate cut has been too small to lift overall sentiment for crude oil," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley expects Oil prices to drop to the mid-$70s next year amid a surplus on the market from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producer. Morgan Stanley forecasts OPEC and non-OPEC supply to increase by around 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, well outpacing demand growth.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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