WTI moves below $83.50 amid expectations of increased supply, US NFP awaited
|- WTI price inches lower as recent data showed that OPEC increased production in June.
- Negotiations between Israel and Hamas showing potential for improvement exert downward pressure on Oil prices.
- US Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to show an increase of 190,000 new jobs, down from the previous reading of 272,000.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price trades around $83.50 per barrel at the time of writing. Crude Oil prices remain tepid as recent data showed that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) increased production in June for the second consecutive month. This indicates a potential easing of tight Oil markets in the coming months, exerting downward pressure on crude Oil prices.
On the geopolitical front, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu informed US President Joe Biden on Thursday that he has decided to send a delegation to resume stalled negotiations on a hostage release deal with Hamas. A source within the Israeli negotiating team said that there is a real chance of reaching an agreement after Hamas made a revised proposal regarding the terms of the deal, as reported by Reuters. This may ease the supply threat from the Middle East, putting pressure on the Oil prices.
US Oil demand rose this week on strong summer demand expectations in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer. According to the American Automobile Association (AAA), travel during this period is projected to be 5.2% higher than in 2023, with car travel alone rising by 4.8% compared to the previous year, Reuters reports.
The weaker economic US data has led to speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might consider lowering borrowing costs in 2024. Reduced borrowing costs can stimulate economic growth in the United States, potentially boosting demand for Oil and providing support for crude Oil prices.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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