WTI extends its decline below $76.50 amid China demand concerns, eyes on Fed rate decision
|- WTI attracts some sellers near $76.25 in Tuesday’s Asian session, down 0.45% on the day.
- The weaker outlook for crude demand in China weighs on the WTI price.
- Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are likely to disrupt oil supplies, capping the downside for Oil prices.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $76.25 on Tuesday. WTI price extends its decline to the lowest level since June 10 amid the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate cut expectation in September and China’s weaker demand.
The Fed is anticipated to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.50% for the eighth time in a row at its July meeting on Wednesday. Traders will also take more cues from the Fed Press Conference for the interest rate cut path. Anydovish messages from the US central bank could be positive for risk-sensitive assets like WTI price.
Additionally, the weaker demand and sluggish economy in China weigh on WTI price as China is the top largest consumer of oil in the world. China's total fuel oil imports fell by 11% in the first half of 2024, according to the data released earlier this month. "The economic problems in China are also sucking the juice out of the oil market," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York.
The Golan Heights attack on Saturday raised worries about a war between Israel and Hezbollah. Israel accuses Hezbollah of carrying out the strike on a football pitch, which killed at least 12 people, including children, and it has promised to react. However, Hezbollah denies being involved in the attack. The market reaction to the recent Middle East conflict has been muted. However, escalating geopolitical tensions between Israel and Hezbollah might disrupt oil supplies and lift the WTI price.
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
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