WTI consolidating below the 2½-year high, more upside to come?
|- Traders focussed on Iran, but are the protests really that much of a risk?
- Bullish from here still on the daily sticks and market's positioning?
WTI remains in a bullish formation and is underpinned by concerns over the unrest in Iran whos lift in sanctions back in Jan 2016 when Tehran complied with that landmark nuclear deal under the Obama administration was a major downside catalyst in the market - WTI sank to as low as $26bbls before recovering to a more respectable $50bbls level in April of the same year.
While analysts do not see a markable lift in the price oil directly on the back of the protests spreading across Iran, the Iranian regime's response may embolden President Trump to snap sanctions back into place. However, it appears that the 2.3 million barrels a day that Iran exports are still quite safe right now and the oil fields have not become a target by protestors, as of yet.
Also, traders on Friday have welcomed data showing a weekly decline in the number of U.S. drilling rigs. Weekly data from Baker Hughes showed the number of active rigs drilling for oil unexpectedly fell by five to 742 last week a positive factor for oil prices given that production could fall. As a result, net long Brent positions were climbing to a record high last week, underpinning the bullish case for higher prices yet.
Price is consolidating just below the 2½-year high
The price is consolidating just below the 2½-year high made last week at $62.04bbls. WTI and Brent scored weekly gains of 1.7% and 1.1%, respectively, boosted by a seventh-straight drop in U.S. crude supplies as well as the protests on Iran.
Technical levels to watch
Technically, the price looks stable above the ascending 100 SMA on the hourly sticks at $61.26bbls, although 4-hr RSI is losing its upside trajectory and the 10 sma is crossing below the 21 sma on the same time frame. The daily picture is more positive with momentum and RSI in bullish territory.
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