When is the Eurozone Q1 Prelim flash GDP and how could it affect EUR/USD?
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Eurozone Prelim flash GDP estimate overview
At 0900 GMT, the first reading of the Eurozone first-quarter GDP figures will be reported. The consensus amongst traders expects the bloc’s economic growth to come in a tad firmer at 0.3% inter-quarter in Q1, while on an annualized basis, is expected to steady at 1.1%.
Deviation impact on EUR/USD
Readers can find FX Street's proprietary deviation impact map of the event below. As observed the reaction is likely to remain confined between 10 and 70 pips in deviations up to 4 to -2.5, although in some cases, if notable enough, a deviation can fuel movements of up to 120-130 pips.
How could affect EUR/USD?
At the press time, the EUR/USD pair trades near 1.1185 levels, having changed course and spiked to 1.1195 highs after the Spanish Q1 preliminary GDP rate arrived at 0.7% q/q vs. 0.6% expected.
From a technical perspective, a stronger Q1 first Eurozone GDP reading could add extra legs to the renewed upside in EUR/USD, fuelling a break above the 1.1200 barrier. A sustained move above the last could open doors for a test of 1.1230/34 (20-DMA/ April 24 high) and 1.1275 (50-DMA).
On the flip side, a negative surprise could drag the spot back to 1.1160 (5-DMA), below which the next supports are aligned at 1.1142 (April 29 low) and 1.1111 (2019 lows).
Key Notes
Eurozone GDP and German inflation amongst market movers today – Danske Bank
About Eurozone Q1 Prelim flash GDP
The Gross Domestic Product released by the Eurostat is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the Eurozone. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the Eurozone economic activity and health. Usually, a rising trend has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).
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