When is the Aussie jobs report and how could it affect AUD/USD?
|Overview of the Australian jobs report
Early Thursday markets will see Australian employment data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics at 11:30 Sydney/9:30 Singapore/HK and 01:30 GMT. Following the election driven boost to the headline employment data during last-month, investors will witness the normal reading that could help them better predict future policy moves by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) considering its emphasis on the unemployment rate.
Market consensus favors a decline to 10.0K from 42.3K of seasonally adjusted Employment Change whereas the Unemployment Rate is likely remaining unchanged at 5.2%. Also, the participation rate may hold its previous 66.00% mark intact.
TD Securities emphasizes on last month's general election to be the key driver of likely boost to the employment scenario:
We anticipate some give back in June from May's election driven boost to employment. We forecast +5k for headline Jun employment, the participation rate to remain at 66% and the unemployment rate to remain at 5.2%. The risk is for the unemployment rate to edge higher should more people be looking for work.
Westpac also anticipates a pullback in the Employment Change as it says:
In Australia, we have the key June employment report which is expected to rise 9k and see the unemployment rate hold at 5.2%. Westpac is forecasting a 10k increase in employment but expects the unemployment rate to decline to 5.1% due to a pull-back in the participation rate. Q2 NAB business survey will provide further detail on the monthly read – conditions (+2) and confidence (+3) both below average in Jun.
How could the data affect AUD/USD?
Despite RBA’s latest rate cuts, the central bank and its Governor continue to highlight unemployment rate as a key driver of next policy moves, which in turn increases the employment data’s impact on the AUD/USD pair. With the data likely to portray regular employment market condition after the election-driven boost, any disappointment will be taken seriously to provide further damages to the Aussie pair.
Technically, 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) level of 0.7017 limits the pair’s immediate upside targeting 0.7045/50 resistance-area comprising May and current month high. On the contrary, 0.6980/85 area becomes key to sellers as it includes July 10 top, 21-day and 50-day EMAs. Should prices slip below 0.6980, 0.6930 can come back on the chart.
Key Notes
AUD/USD remains mildly bid ahead of Aussie employment data
AUD/USD Analysis: flat around 0.7010 ahead of employment data
About the Employment Change
The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
About the Unemployment Rate
The Unemployment Rate release by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).
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