USD/JPY to trade at 145.00 in the end of the year – Rabobank
|USD/JPY has been on a downtrend since early January, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley reports.
Concern from Ueda to disappoint JPY bulls this week
"That said, in the past few sessions there have been signs of some corrective activity. The degree of hawkishness from the BoJ following this week’s policy meeting will likely be a crucial determinant of direction in the currency pair near-term. Further out, we retain our year end forecast of USD/JPY145.00 with downside risk."
"For BoJ watchers, it is hoped that Ueda will this week offer some clarity as to whether the BoJ could hike rates more than once this year. This would likely mean the next rate hike will follow in Q2. In a stable geopolitical backdrop, the likelihood of two more policy moves this year would likely be relatively high."
"However, evidence of a slowing US economy and uncertainty about Trump tariffs, potentially on Japan’s auto exports to the US, could inject a note of caution into the BoJ’s policy decisions this year. Notes of concern from Ueda on these issues will likely disappoint JPY bulls this week. That said, we would favour selling rallies to USD/JPY150.00 given our longer-term bullish JPY view."
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