USD/JPY remains subdued near 146.50 as Jackson Hole takes center stage
|- USD/JPY edges lower near 146.50 amid weakness in the US Dollar.
- The Fed is widely anticipated to start reducing interest rates in September.
- Japan’s robust Q2 GDP growth has boosted expectations of more BoJ’s rate hikes.
The USD/JPY pair exhibits a subdued performance near 146.50 in Tuesday’s European session. The asset edges lower but remains inside Monday’s trading session with investors focusing on the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole (JH) Symposium on August 22-23.
Investors would look for a pre-defined interest rate path from Fed Powell as rate cuts in September seem certain. Market participants would also want to know whether the Fed will start the policy-easing cycle, with an aggressive or a gradual approach.
The market sentiment remains cheerful as the Fed is widely anticipated to pivot to policy-normalization in September. S&P 500 futures have posted some losses in the European session. Risk-perceived currencies are outperforming the US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, slides further to multi-month lows near 101.80.
On the economic data front, investors will focus on the preliminary United States (US) S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for August, which will be published on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen performs well as upbeat Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth has opened room for further policy-tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) this year. The Japanese economy expanded at a robust pace of 0.8% from the estimates of 0.5%. In the first quarter, the economy contracted sharply.
Japanese Yen FAQs
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The current BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process has exacerbated more recently due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which have opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation.
The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favors the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
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