USD/JPY Price Analysis: Recovery remains elusive below 129.50
|- USD/JPY picks up bids to portray a rebound from 12-day low, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
- Bearish MACD signals, break of ascending trend line from March favor sellers.
- 100-SMA, the peak of April 20 constitute key short-term resistance.
- 200-SMA, late April’s swing low act as additional downside filters.
USD/JPY recovers from a fortnight low, snaps two-day downtrend, as it regains 128.50 during the initial hour of Tokyo open on Friday.
The yen pair’s latest run-up could be linked to the failure to break the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (Fibo.) level of March 31 to May 09 upside. However, bearish MACD signals and sustained trading below the previous support line from late March, around 130.70 by the press time, keep sellers hopeful.
That said, the current upside momentum eyes 129.50 level, a confluence of the 100-SMA and April 20 high.
Following that, the 130.00 round figure and the support-turned-resistance line near 130.70 will be crucial to watch for further USD/JPY advances.
Should the quote rises past 130.70, the odds of it refreshing the latest multi-month high of 131.34 can’t be ruled out.
Alternatively, pullback moves may initially aim for the 38.2% Fibo level surrounding 127.50 before the 200-SMA challenge the USD/JPY sellers near 127.10. Also likely to test the pair’s further downside is the late April bottom close to 126.90.
Hence, USD/JPY moves aren’t likely to be entertaining until staying between 126.90 and 129.50.
USD/JPY: Four-hour chart
Trend: Pullback expected
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