USD/JPY licks Fed-inflicted wounds at six-week low under 131.00 as yields stay weak

• USD/JPY portrays corrective bounce after refreshing 1.5-month low during two-day fall.
• Yields remain pressured amid dovish Fed hike, banking sector turmoil.
• Downbeat Reuters Tanks survey details, comments from Citibank CEO seem to underpin latest rebound.
• Second-tier data, risk catalysts can entertain Yen pair sellers ahead of Friday’s Japan inflation.

 

USD/JPY picks up bids to pare intraday losses around 130.80 amid early Thursday morning in Europe. In doing so, the Yen pair bounces off a six-week low marked earlier in the day as traders seek more clues to extend the Federal Reserve (Fed) induces moves. Adding strength to the corrective bounces could be the key policymakers’ rejection of the financial crisis, as well as the downbeat details of Japan’s Reuters Tankan survey.

“Big Japanese manufacturers remained pessimistic about business conditions for a third straight month in March,” the closely watched Reuters Tankan survey showed early Thursday. “The sentiment index for big manufacturers stood at minus 3, slightly up from minus 5 seen in the previous month, according to the survey conducted March 8-17,” reported Reuters.

On the same line are Citibank CEO Jane Fraser’s efforts to placate market fears while saying, "This is not a credit crisis. This is a situation where it's a few banks," per Bloomberg. It should be noted that multiple central bank officials have also tried their hands to rule out fears of the 2008 crisis earlier but have failed so far. However, their swift reaction to the fallouts of the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Signature Bank and Credit Suisse gains applause and pushes back the odds of the market’s collapse.

Even so, the US 10-year and two-year Treasury bond yields stay pressured around 3.46% and 3.89% at the latest, licking their wounds after falling the most in a week, which in turn exerts downside pressure on the USD/JPY prices. It should be noted that the yields dropped heavily after the Federal Reserve announcements on Wednesday, snapping a two-day rebound.

Fed confirmed the market’s expectations of announcing a 0.25% rate hike but failed to convince the policy hawks and drowned the yields, as well as the US Dollar. The reason could be linked to the statements saying, “Some additional policy firming may be appropriate,” instead of previous remarks like “Ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate.”

It should be noted that Fed Chair Jerome Powell and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s comments triggered the market’s pessimism. Fed’s Powell said that officials do not see rate cuts for this year, which in turn allowed breathing space to the greenback bears but failed to last long. Further, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen ruled out considering “blanket insurance” for bank deposits. Recently, Bloomberg also came out with the news suggesting that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is said to delay the bid deadline for a Silicon Valley private bank.

Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures print mild gains around 3,980, up 0.13% intraday following the biggest daily slump in two weeks.

Looking ahead, monetary policy announcements from the Bank of England (BoE) and Swiss National Bank (SNB) may entertain USD/JPY traders by way of the central bankers’ reaction to the banking crisis. However, major attention will be given to Friday’s Japan National Consumer Price Index data for February amid hawkish bias surrounding the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Technical analysis

An ascending support line from the mid-January, around 130.40 by the press time, restricts immediate USD/JPY downside. However, the Yen pair buyers remain off the table unless witnessing clear break of a fortnight-old resistance line, close to 131.85 at the latest.