USD/INR gathers strength ahead of Fed’s Powell speech
|- The Indian Rupee trades in negative territory in Tuesday’s Asian session.
- Higher US bond yields and further gains in crude oil prices weigh on the local currency.
- The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell's speech on Tuesday will be closely watched.
The Indian Rupee (INR) weakens on Tuesday amid the renewed US Dollar (USD) demand and higher US bond yields. Meanwhile, the further rise of crude oil prices amid fears of Middle East geopolitical risks exerts some selling pressure on the INR as India is the world’s third-largest oil consumer after the United States (US) and China.
Nonetheless, the optimism in the Indian economic outlook and portfolio inflows, including the country's sovereign bonds on account of their inclusion in the JPMorgan emerging market debt index, might lift the local currency and cap the pair’s upside. Investors will closely watch the speech by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday for fresh impetus. On Wednesday, the attention will shift to India’s HSBC Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for June. Any signs of further expansion in the Indian services sector might boost the Indian Rupee and create a headwind for the pair.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee edges lower amid higher crude oil prices and US bond yields
- India’s HSBC Manufacturing PMI rose to 58.3 in June from the previous reading of 57.5, weaker than the expectation of 58.5.
- Indian Manufacturing PMI growth was boosted by a record-high rate of job creation. The employment rate was supported by buoyant demand conditions that fueled expansions in new orders, output levels, and procurement activities across the sector.
- Foreign investors bought 16.54 billion rupees ($198.4 million) in Indian bonds under the Fully Accessible Route, lower than the market expected.
- US Manufacturing PMI for June declined to 48.5 from 48.7 in May. This figure came in weaker than the estimation of 49.1, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported Monday.
- Financial markets are now pricing in nearly 59.5% chance of 25 basis points (bps) of Fed rate cut in September, up from 58.2% last Friday, according to CME FedWatch Tool.
Technical analysis: USD/INR might face consolidation or downside in the near term
The Indian Rupee trades weaker on the day. The USD/INR pair remains stuck within the familiar trading range on the daily chart. The bullish trend of the pair remains intact above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, further consolidation or downside cannot be ruled out as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds in bearish territory below the 50-midline.
Consistent trading above 83.65, a high of June 26, may take USD/INR back to the all-time high of 83.75. An upside breakout might extend its upswing to the 84.00 psychological level.
On the downside, any follow-through selling below the 100-day EMA of 83.35 might drag the pair lower to the 83.00 round figure. A breach of this level will see a drop to 82.82, a low of January 12.
US Dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | 0.02% | 0.06% | 0.06% | 0.16% | 0.11% | 0.17% | 0.07% | |
| EUR | -0.01% | 0.02% | 0.04% | 0.14% | 0.08% | 0.15% | 0.05% | |
| GBP | -0.05% | -0.03% | 0.01% | 0.10% | 0.05% | 0.13% | 0.03% | |
| CAD | -0.06% | -0.05% | -0.01% | 0.09% | 0.04% | 0.11% | 0.04% | |
| AUD | -0.15% | -0.14% | -0.09% | -0.10% | -0.06% | 0.03% | -0.08% | |
| JPY | -0.10% | -0.08% | -0.06% | -0.05% | 0.05% | 0.08% | -0.01% | |
| NZD | -0.17% | -0.16% | -0.13% | -0.12% | -0.01% | -0.07% | -0.09% | |
| CHF | -0.10% | -0.09% | -0.05% | -0.04% | 0.07% | -0.01% | 0.07% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
RBI FAQs
The role of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its own words, is '..to maintain price stability while keeping in mind the objective of growth.” This involves maintaining the inflation rate at a stable 4% level primarily using the tool of interest rates. The RBI also maintains the exchange rate at a level that will not cause excess volatility and problems for exporters and importers, since India’s economy is heavily reliant on foreign trade, especially Oil.
The RBI formally meets at six bi-monthly meetings a year to discuss its monetary policy and, if necessary, adjust interest rates. When inflation is too high (above its 4% target), the RBI will normally raise interest rates to deter borrowing and spending, which can support the Rupee (INR). If inflation falls too far below target, the RBI might cut rates to encourage more lending, which can be negative for INR.
Due to the importance of trade to the economy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in FX markets to maintain the exchange rate within a limited range. It does this to ensure Indian importers and exporters are not exposed to unnecessary currency risk during periods of FX volatility. The RBI buys and sells Rupees in the spot market at key levels, and uses derivatives to hedge its positions.
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