USD, EUR: Backwards or forwards – Commerzbank
|Thursday was a bit puzzling. Due to concerns about the current state of the US consumer and general uncertainty about the state of the global manufacturing sector, uncertainty had spread to the currency markets in recent days, Commerzbank FX strategist Volkmar Baur notes.
US GDP figure turns the market upside-down
“The JPY and CHF were in demand, while the EM currencies were less so. And then everything took a turn at 2:30 p.m. (MEST) when the US GDP figures were released. It is generally assumed that markets look ahead and price in expectations, and then a backward looking number causes a reversal. Admittedly, consumer spending came in slightly above expectations at 2.3%.”
“However, it should also be noted that the positive surprise in overall GDP growth (2.8% vs. 2.0% expected) was nearly entirely due to inventory accumulation, which added 0.8 percentage points to growth. Anyway, yesterday was enough to change the mood of the market. However, in my opinion, caution is certainly required.”
“Yesterday's figures did not really put an end to concerns about the US consumer and the manufacturing sector. And next week, we have a number of data points on the calendar (US payrolls, global manufacturing PMIs, just to name the most important) that could rekindle these concerns.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.