USD: Dollar holds gains – ING
|It's Fed week, and the central bank is expected to cut its target policy band by 25bp to 4.25-4.50% on Wednesday. That is fully priced, and as our US economist James Knightley here, more interest will be had in how the Federal Reserve prepares to explain skipping its meeting in January, ING’s FX analyst Chris Turner notes.
DXY can find support near 106.50/70
“New Fed forecasts should also reduce the number of expected rate cuts in 2025 to three from four. This is all currently priced by the market, but there seems little reason for the Fed to dovishly surprise this week and we see the dollar staying supported.”
“Additionally, tomorrow's release of November retail sales is expected to show healthy 0.4% month-on-month growth in the retail sales control group – suggesting US consumer habits are alive and well. But as seen in previous weeks, the dollar could also get dragged around by events overseas, where pressure looks likely to stay on the Chinese renminbi, and we should expect more rate cuts in Europe and elsewhere.”
“As a side note, we see the occasional references to the risk of another 1985 Plaza Accord to weaken the dollar. We take the view that 2025 will be more akin to 1983-1984, when more air was pumped into the dollar bubble. DXY should again find support near 106.50/70 and should push back above 107.00.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers.